Australia's Emerging Hub for Urban Migrants as Sunshine Coast Loses Its Charm

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Geelong has become Australia’s leading regional destination for those relocating, as reported in a recent study, as people continue to move from big cities at rates exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

This bayside area in Victoria now ranks as the favorite spot for city dwellers seeking a change, contributing to 7.4 percent of net migration out of major cities.

It has just surpassed Queensland’s Sunshine Coast, which holds a 7.3 percent share, based on the newest Regional Movers Index by the Regional Australia Institute and Commonwealth Bank.

The other favorites rounding out the top five regional destinations include Lake Macquarie in New South Wales, Moorabool in Victoria, and Maitland in New South Wales.

The Regional Movers Index, which uses Commonwealth Bank data, also shows most tree-changers are coming from Sydney and Melbourne.

“The nation’s love affair with regional living is showing no signs of abating with 25 per cent more people moving from capital cities to the regions, than back in the opposite direction,” Regional Australia Institute CEO Liz Ritchie said.

The number of capital city folk moving to Australia’s regions each quarter has remained elevated since the onset of the pandemic through to the post-COVID-19 era, according to the report — at around 20.5 per cent higher than the pre-COVID average level of quarterly migration.

However, a demographer and social researcher said that might not be entirely accurate and is at odds with other national population data.

“I don’t believe we’re witnessing a massive migration from urban to regional areas. Consequently, I don’t anticipate people prioritizing regional areas first,” stated Dr. Liz Allen from the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Policy, speaking to SBS News.

“That said, it is no surprise that regional areas like Greater Geelong are going to flourish because for a lot of the first home buyers, their most affordable areas are in these fringe areas.”

According to property data firm CoreLogic, Geelong’s median house price was $715,574 in April, while in the Sunshine Coast it was $1,065,140.

Regional growing pains

Greater Geelong is Australia’s largest regional council area, home to more than 282,000 people.

Its rise on the regional migration leaderboard reflects a rise in popularity in regional Victoria as a whole, according to the report.

A bar graph titled: Net outflows from capital cities

An analysis of net migration shows the proportion of people moving out of cities and into regional areas. Source: SBS News

The state captured 34 per cent of the total net inflows into all of regional Australia during the March quarter, up 28 per cent year-on-year.

“Victoria is a very attractive place to be the vital social and economic infrastructure that seems to be really setting the right notes for residents there,” Allen said.

“But that footprint is increasing at an alarming rate and in fact we’re seeing the rates of increase and population growth occurring the fastest in regional areas … which spells some really difficult times for policymakers and people wanting to build vital infrastructure.”

Geelong, in particular, is experiencing significant growing pains according to the council’s draft five-year plan.

Like most regional areas, Greater Geelong is confronting a housing shortage, ageing infrastructure and congestion as it expands.

“Greater Geelong is one of Australia’s fastest-growing regions, and managing this expansion will be crucial to our success over the coming decades,” the plan says.

To support the demand for housing, the Victorian government has set a target of an extra 128,600 dwellings in Greater Geelong by 2051.

A line graph titled: Population flows from capital cities to regions

The number of capital-city folk moving into Australia’s regions each quarter is overall higher the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Source: SBS News

Maitland, NSW’s Hunter Valley, is also experiencing rapid growth, attracting new residents from both the capitals and other regions.

The region, which had a population of 78,000 in 2016, is on track to exceed 100,000 people by the end of 2026, with six new residents arriving every day, according to a council report.

“We’ve got to be really careful here,” Allen said.

“We have an opportunity to examine what kind of footprint — in both an environmental and social way — we want for this country.

“We can’t just have growth going on without us understanding what needs are for people in areas.”

— With additional reporting by Australian Associated Press