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A MAJOR crackdown on smog could soon hit homeowners where it hurts, their heating bills
This week, a vote on new regulations could initiate a transition away from specific household appliances, implementing expensive new criteria for millions of households.
This initiative is driven by air quality officials who assert that gas-powered heaters and water systems are significant, silent polluters, surpassing even oil refineries in the area.
According to the South Coast Air Quality Management District, the regulations would focus on central heating systems and natural gas-powered water heaters, which are present in almost every home throughout the Los Angeles basin.
The proposed plan would force manufacturers to sell increasing numbers of zero-emission alternatives – like electric heat pumps – or pay steep penalties for every gas-powered unit sold, Santa Monica Daily Press reported.
Regulators say it’s the only way to cut enough pollution to meet long-standing federal clean air targets.
But critics warn it could saddle homeowners and landlords with thousands in added costs, while limiting the kinds of systems they can install.
The rules apply to the four-county Los Angeles basin, where home appliances are a major source of smog-causing pollution.
About 90% of heating systems and water heaters in the region currently run on gas, according to the district.
If approved, that number would shrink every year under mandatory targets, dropping to 30% in 2027 and just 10% by 2036.
Heat pumps, which run on electricity, are the leading replacement.
But prices vary wildly.
Replacing a gas water heater with an electric model could cost $2,000 more, and switching just a furnace may set a homeowner back $8,000.
Homeowners, however, won’t have to swap out their current gas appliances right away.
The district estimates that about 200,000 furnaces and 300,000 water heaters will be replaced yearly in the region.
Contractors and developers argue that the fees usually paid by manufacturers will now be passed to residents and businesses, which will raise the cost of living.
What the New Smog Law Means
Appliances impacted:
- Natural gas water heaters
- Central heating systems
- Furnaces
What’s changing:
- Manufacturers must sell more zero-emission models or pay a fee for each gas unit sold
Timeline:
- 30% zero-emission by 2027
- 50% by 2029
- 75% by 2033
- 90% by 2036
Penalties:
- $50 to $500 per gas appliance sold
Consumer impact:
- No immediate replacement required
- Replacing a furnace with a heat pump could cost $8,000 more
- Water heater switch may cost $2,000 more
Goal: Cut nitrogen oxide emissions by 6 tons/day by 2061
Health savings: $59 billion projected between 2027 and 2053
“This money is not coming out of thin air,” Brian Johsz of the Los Angeles County Business Federation said.
“It’s a solution in search of a problem in a lot of ways. It’s just putting the financial burden on residents when we are already seeing they have such a hard time trying to make ends meet right now.”
SoCalGas also criticized the plan, warning it limits choices and increases costs.
“Over time, the public will be forced to pay hundreds of dollars more to replace their gas appliances,” Kevin Barker, SoCalGas senior manager, wrote in a letter to the district, per the Santa Monica Daily Press.
“It is not in the public interest, especially at a time when consumers are demanding affordable energy solutions.”
Air quality officials counter that electric heaters will save consumers money over time.
Between 2027 and 2061, residents could save $191 million to $250 million annually on utility bills by switching.
Manufacturers can either sell only zero-emission units by 2027 or pay fees for gas appliance sales.
The collected fees will support incentives for low-income buyers.
Environmentalists say the rules do not go far enough.
“There are still a lot of emission reductions that are being left on the table,” Chris Chavez of the Clean Air Coalition said.
The original plan demanded 100% zero-emission sales by 2031 but was weakened after pushback from gas companies and businesses.
The current draft raises targets gradually: 30% zero-emission sales in 2027, 50% in 2029, 75% in 2033, and 90% in 2036.
Fees for natural gas appliance sales range from $500 down to $50 per unit.
By 2061, 90% of all water heaters and furnaces in the region should be zero-emissions.
REDUCTION PLANS
The district projects the proposal will reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by six tons daily, down from the original 10 tons forecast.
“We’ve seen the Trump administration really waging a war on clean energy,” said Sierra Club attorney Nihal Shrinath.
“The South Coast (district) basically caving to gas lobbying efforts and really weakening a rule they have been working on for years.”
Nitrogen oxides cause smog and trigger asthma, while fine particles increase risks of heart and respiratory diseases.
The district estimates $59 billion in health cost savings from pollution reductions between 2027 and 2053.
Annual benefits include preventing 280 new asthma cases, 44 emergency room visits, and 6,100 lost school days.
The Bay Area already enforces similar zero-emission rules for water heaters and furnaces.
Cities like Los Angeles and Long Beach support the new rules, while other cities like Huntington Beach and Riverside have opposed them.
The South Coast district’s board will hold a public hearing and vote on the measures June 13, 2025, updating emissions rules first enacted decades ago.
