Interesting timing: Just hours after it was announced that President Donald Trump might take “up to two weeks” to consider deploying US warplanes to drop bunker-busters on Fordow, Iran’s last main nuclear site, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi responded with some assertive rhetoric.
This clearly indicates that the regime’s strategy is to prolong the situation as much as possible, with the hope that Europe and/or Congress might influence Trump to urge Israel to cease its efforts.
Which means the president needs to pay even more heed to the risks of holding off on a decisive intervention.
This strategy not only risks losing the public support gained over the past week but also leaves room for unexpected developments to escalate the situation beyond a straightforward strike on a single nuclear facility.
To be clear, Trump can still hope for a negotiated end to Iran’s nuclear program, but Araqchi’s ploy reeks of the same bogus game that Hamas has been playing ever since the end of the Gaza ceasefire the prez imposed as he was taking office.
A game the Iranian was plainly pushing as he met Friday in Geneva with a passel of European diplos trying to “de-escalate” the conflict.
Meanwhile, some in Congress are maneuvering to tie Trump’s hands, insisting he shouldn’t act without votes in the House and Sente explicitly authorizing any strikes — a precedent that would likely permanently limit not just this president, but all future holders of the Oval Office.
For what it’s worth, Trump plainly isn’t holding off only because the ayatollah might see reason: He’s also considering the full impact of a US strike, and seeing what else may develop.
For example: Maybe Israel can take out Fordow without our help, whether with repeated waves of smaller bombs or (conceivably) the most ambitious commando raid ever.
He’s reportedly also worried about Iran descending into total chaos, as Libya did after President Barack Obama arrogantly decided he could show the world how “regime change” should be done.
Yet that raises another angle that argues against Trump taking his time: Israel’s ongoing total humiliation of the Islamic Republic’s rulers (and its killing of many of them) could trigger a Libya-style “regime collapse” even without a Fordow takeout.
So a fast elimination of all Tehran’s nuclear assets, allowing Israel to stand down, is arguably the best hope for the region to stabilize.
Khamenei and his advisers care only about protecting their own power, so they’ll use every hour Trump gives them searching for some way out of the trap they put themselves in by ignoring Trump’s last deadline.
Trump has to look at the bigger picture, including the risks (seen and unseen) of letting Tehran keep playing games.
