This is an integral part of his and his political team’s strategy to retain control of the House in the 2026 mid-term elections. Currently, the Republicans hold a narrow 220 to 215 majority in the U.S. House, excluding any vacancies, which are expected to be held by the incumbent party. To maintain their grip on the House, they can only afford to lose up to two more seats. Additionally, they aim to gain some seats to strengthen their control and hinder any disruptive Republicans, such as Thomas Massie from Kentucky, from obstructing GOP priorities.
Re-drawing the district lines in Texas is a positive addition to their strategy. In 2002, Republicans defied the usual mid-term losses partly because it was a redistricting year. This wasn’t the sole reason; there was also a “rally around the flag” effect following the 9/11 attacks, along with the GOP experiencing growth after consistently losing seats in every election since 1994.
Currently, Democrats have threatened retaliation by advocating for a re-redistricting effort in California should this occur in Texas. However, this move is unlikely to be successful, given the numerous obstacles they would face in attempting to bypass standard California procedures.
READ MORE: Gavin Newsom Threatens to Redraw CA’s Congressional Districts Before Midterms; Here’s Why He Can’t
However, it does give the GOP license to play in other Republican majority states. (Ohio is already happening.) These could include Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, and Kansas. The Democrats have fewer options. Maybe New York?
Unfortunately, because Nebraska has an officially non-partisan legislature, the Democrats are able to win more legislative seats on the downlow than they should. And this enables them to filibuster GOP attempts to correct the congressional districting, which favors Democrats in the 2nd district. So, retiring Rep. Don Bacon’s district is going to continue to be in grave danger. (Perhaps the legislature should be made officially partisan?)
Let’s once again look at the numbers. President Trump’s job approval currently stands at 45.8 percent to 51.5 percent disapproval at RCP. Which is down a smidge since I last tallied it. This is not good, but not consistently below the 43 percent that indicates danger.
Some restrainer conservatives have been trying to make the case that the Epstein scandal and the U.S. attack on Iran have depressed Trump’s numbers. This seems unlikely. Attacking anti-American foreign targets usually creates a “rally around the flag” effect, unless/until large numbers of Americans perish, which hasn’t happened and is very unlikely to happen in this case. And while the Trump administration may have overpromised regarding the Epstein scandal, the polling suggests Trump’s approval has gone up among Republicans. (And left-wing pollsters have no reason to manipulate the numbers to make Trump look better.) And moderates and true independents, who are least likely to vote during mid-terms, are not even likely to remember this scandal in the final month before the elections. (For them, it’s often the economy, stupid.)
More likely, this is just the normal ebb and flow of approval for a president.
Other factors seem to be working mostly in the GOP’s favor.
The Republicans are outraising the Democrats in House battleground districts. Even worse for the Democrats, those Democrats who are lefties in safe districts seem to be monopolizing much of the funding over those moderate Democrats who actually have competitive races. Even if the lefties “share the wealth” (which they often DON’T do), they will give it to those battleground Democrats who cater to their side on their issues, which is not a good campaign strategy for the moderates.
Further, the polling for the Democrat party is atrocious. This is because of the Doom Loop I have described keeps making things worse. The Democrat base gets angrier and angrier because of its consistent losses to the Republicans, which prompts them to express their disapproval of their own party. But the Democrat base continues to believe that their message of left-wing anger is what will attract true independents and moderates, because they watch MSM television and talk to fellow lefty Democrats who all echo that leftism and anger. And now the arch-lefties in the House – and in New York City – are raising all the money and getting all the excitement and attention. But this anger and leftism don’t appeal to moderates and true independents, and it is not likely to prompt them to come out and vote Democrat in 2026.
Apart from Rep. Don Bacon’s retirement, many GOP members in competitive districts are seeking reelection. Rep. Mike Lawler was “big-footed” out of the GOP governors race by Rep. Elise Stefanik, but Stefanik’s district is much more likely to remain Republican without her than Lawler’s would have been. And in a similar fashion, Rep. Zach Nunn is still seeking reelection and not running for governor against Rep. Paul Feenstra (the latter of whom represents a much safer district).
*For those too young to remember, “strategery” is an SNL joke on President George W. Bush, when SNL was still a sometimes-funny show.
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