Democrats are pinning their aspirations for a promising 2025 on two political allies—Mikie Sherrill, a candidate for governor in New Jersey, and Abigail Spanberger, who is pursuing the governorship in Virginia. Both have shared an apartment in Washington, D.C., since their election to Congress amid the Democratic surge in 2018.

Interestingly, New Jersey, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, appears unexpectedly vulnerable to a Republican upset.

Recent polling data from Quinnipiac University suggests Sherrill holds an 8-point advantage over her Republican rival, Jack Ciattarelli. However, another poll by Emerson College indicates a much narrower lead, with Sherrill ahead by only 2 points.

An insider from Sherrill’s campaign expressed optimism about early voting trends, noting that Democrats have established a more robust early voting strategy compared to the previous gubernatorial race.

“The race isn’t over yet, but Mikie is close to sealing the deal,” commented Brad Lawrence, a veteran consultant within the Democratic Party.

Despite this cautious optimism, Democrats remain on edge as the campaign reaches its final, critical stages.

When Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman, ran against Democratic incumbent Governor Phil Murphy in 2021, he only lost to Murphy by 3.2 points.

In the 2024 election, President Donald Trump lost New Jersey by just six points to Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, but improved upon his 2020 showing by 10 points.

Democratic candidate for New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill looks at supporters while campaigning in Bloomfield, New Jersey, U.S., October 28, 2025

Voters wait in line to cast there ballot at a polling place at Rowan College in Mount Laurel, N.J., Monday, Oct. 27, 2025

Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli speaks during a news conference

Signs for gubernatorial nominees Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli stand by a roadside in Warren, N.J., Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025

The former state assemblyman is hoping to benefit from an upset this time around, posturing himself as the true New Jersey native, as Sherrill only moved to the state in 2010 after serving as a Navy helicopter pilot. 

However, he may not be able to fully benefit from Trump’s gains, as the president’s campaign targeted new and infrequent voters, who are less likely to turn out in off-year elections. 

In Virginia, Spanberger is still considered a runaway favorite for the state’s top office, but a downballot scandal has marred the party’s image and complicated her messaging.

Spanberger’s campaign ran into some turbulence earlier this month after her party’s nominee for attorney general, Jay Jones, was plunged into scandal over texts he sent wishing death on then-Republican speaker of the Virginia House of Representatives.

She denounced Jones’ rhetoric but stopped short of calling on him to drop out of the race, leading to widespread backlash and keeping the story boiling. 

But it’s Jones himself who may bear the wrath of Virginia voters for his poor judgement. A Suffolk University poll conducted from October 19th to 21st showed incumbent Republican Jason Miyares up four points, 46 percent to Jones’ 42 percent.

Two other polls on the race released this week – conducted by Christopher Newport University and A2 Insights – both show Miyares up by just 1 percent, leaving an outside chance for Jones to pull off a victory.

Meanwhile, Earle-Seares is trying to gain ground by campaigning for women’s safety as the transgender issue has become a lightning rod in the state following an incident involving a convicted sex offender identifying as a woman exposing oneself in a Northern Virginia locker room. 

Republican gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears speaks during a rally at the Buckland Farm Market on October 29, 2025 in New Baltimore, Virginia

Campaign signs for Virginia gubernatorial nominees Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears are on display outside City Hall in Fairfax, Va., Friday, Oct. 17, 2025

Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger participates in a campaign event at Los Tios Grill on October 30, 2025 in Alexandria, Virginia

US President Donald Trump makes his way to board Air Force One before departing from Morristown Municipal Airport in Morristown, New Jersey on September 14, 2025 after spending the weekend at his Bedminster residence

Trump made a play for the Garden State, even headlining a massive rally on the Jersey Shore, and made gains in all 29 majority-Latino municipalities in the state. But Trump’s been noticeably absent from the state in this campaign.

Former President Barack Obama campaigned alongside Spanberger Saturday even as polls show the Democrat with a solid single-digit lead.

Obama is not the only former Democratic president to spend time in Virginia in October. Both  Bill and Hillary Clinton pulled in a record-breaking $2.2 million for Spanberger at a McLean, Virginia, fundraiser on October 13.

‘If the outcome of New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races are closer than expected, then it throws out any reasons the Democrats might have in mounting a narrative that they are a forecast for next year’s Congressional elections,’ Republican strategist Ron Bonjean told the Daily Mail. 

On the West Coast, California voters will determine if they’ll exert payback for Texas’ redistricting effort aimed to help Republicans hold on to the House of Representatives. 

Californians will vote on Proposition 50, the ‘Election Rigging Response Act,’ which would temporarily allow Democrats to gerrymander the state to offset possible Republican gains in the Lone Star State.

Proposition 50 is the brainchild of California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom and would take the power of redrawing the map away from the bipartisan California Citizens Redistricting Commission until 2030 and return it to the state legislature, which is controlled by the Democrats. 

People hold up signs opposing Prop 50 during a press conference in Chico, Calif., Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025

A sign reads “I Voted” in multiple languages outside a vote center during the in-person early voting period in California’s Proposition 50 special election on October 27, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. California voters are casting their ballots in the redistricting measure which would redraw the state’s congressional districts in an effort to increase Democratic seats in the U.S. House of Representatives

Veteran canvasser Fernando Flores hangs a door hanger at a home where no one answered promoting Vote Yes on Prop 50 while canvassing a neighborhood in Los Angeles on October 22, 2025 ahead of the November 4 election

Five Republican House seats are being targeted in the effort. 

Newsom said the Democrats are fighting ‘fire with fire.’

‘These guys are not screwing around. They’re ruthless. They’re trying to rig the election before one vote is cast,’ he said in an interview with CNN on Tuesday night. 

As election day nears, Californians appear to be embracing the effort, as national Democrats, including Obama and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, are featured in Newsom’s advertising campaign.

An Emerson College Polling survey conducted October 20-21 found that 57 percent of likely voters supported Proposition 50, while 37 percent opposed it.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said the measure ‘looks likely to pass,’ as the poll’s results are outside the survey’s plus or minus 3.19 percent margin of error. 

‘Certain demographic groups that were hesitant to support the measure have come around to support Prop. 50, such as black voters, whose support increased from 45 percent to 71 percent,’ Kimball said in a statement.