Is it finally Arsenal's turn? Stats boffins predict Gunners' Premier League coronation but a surprise club crashes the top five - and NO newly promoted teams go back down
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According to Opta, Arsenal is poised to finish at the top of the Premier League standings by the end of the 2025-26 season. In a surprising twist, they will be joined in the top five by an unexpected contender.

As gameweek 10 of 38 wraps up and the third and final international break of the autumn approaches, fans are beginning to solidify their expectations for their favorite teams this season.

Data analysts have delved into the statistics from the first 10 games of each team, suggesting that this could finally be Arsenal’s year to clinch the Premier League title after several close attempts.

Arsenal currently leads the table by six points, following a commanding victory over Burnley on Saturday afternoon.

If these forecasts hold true, Arsenal would leave their nearest competitors, Manchester City, significantly behind. City’s chances of reclaiming the Premier League title stand at just 12.63 percent.

Arsenal are predicted to finally win the Premier League after a strong start to their campaign

Arsenal are predicted to finally win the Premier League after a strong start to their campaign

At the bottom end of the spectrum things look dark for Wolves' chance of staying in the league

At the bottom end of the spectrum things look dark for Wolves’ chance of staying in the league

Pep Guardiola’s squad, presently in second place, is projected to accumulate 70.73 points, falling short of Arsenal’s expected tally.

In promising news for Liverpool fans, the predictions appear to back the Reds’ reversal of their current fortunes, after Arne Slot & Co got their season back on track on Saturday with a win against Aston Villa. 

The red side of Merseyside are anticipated to track Man City to second place all the way, and accumulate a predicted 69.97 points in the process, finishing third. 

Playing European football next season should be all but assured, with Liverpool having a 72.75 per cent chance of seeing Champions League action, and a 9.33 per cent chance of featuring in the Europa League draw. 

Chelsea, who are predicted to come fourth, look similarly well-placed to play in Europe next term, but their hopes of capturing the title are minimal, with only a 2.47 per cent chance of doing so at the end of their campaign. 

But more cheered by their prospects could be high-flying Crystal Palace, who are predicted to make a surprise appearance rounding out the top five, with Champions League football almost certainly on the cards to boot. 

One season on from featuring in the Conference League, the Eagles are predicted a promising 25.04 per cent chance of a place at Europe’s top table, and an 11.07 per cent chance of muscling into the Europa League, where they narrowly missed out on playing during their current term. 

Aston Villa, Bournemouth, and Manchester United are predicted to round out the top eight teams with a fighting chance of some form of European football, but amid a worrying blip in form, last year’s Europa League winners Tottenham are predicted to finish in the bottom half of the table in 11th. 

Although Ruben Amorim's Manchester United are enjoying an uptick of form, a spot in the top six is some way off

Although Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United are enjoying an uptick of form, a spot in the top six is some way off

Thomas Frank’s side slumped to their most concerning defeat yet in a 1-0 loss to Chelsea on Saturday evening, with their woeful home form showing no side of reversal. 

While none of the newly promoted teams this term – Burnley, Leeds, or Sunderland – are predicted to break into the top half of the standings, all three appear destined for a consecutive season in the top flight. 

Premier League’s predicted Top 10 

1. Arsenal – 81.44 points

2. Manchester City – 70.73 points

3. Liverpool – 69.97 points

4. Chelsea – 62.76 points

5. Crystal Palace – 59.93 points

6. Aston Villa – 58.63 points

7. Bournemouth – 58.36 points

8. Manchester United – 56.42 points

9. Brighton – 55.83 points

10. Newcastle – 55.50 points 

Data courtesy of Opta 

Instead, it’s bad news for three Premier League recent mainstays, such as Nottingham Forest, who are not expected to experience a relegation-stopping uptick in form under new manager Sean Dyche. 

The Tricky Trees are predicted a 43.13 per cent chance of relegation by Opta, after accruing only 37.31 total points. 

Burnley, their closest rivals in the predicted table, will therefore escape relegation by a whisper thanks to a predicted haul of 37.51 points. 

Premier League fans may also have to wave goodbye to West Ham, who were able to claw back a win against Newcastle on Sunday, but are not expected to improve on their 49.73 per cent chance of relegation. 

Currently condemned are also Wolves, who sit rock bottom of the top on a miserly two points. 

The Molineux-based side are not predicted to win more than 25 more points over the course of the season, despite sacking their manager Vitor Pereira this weekend. 

As a result, Wolves have an unnerving 87.84 per cent chance of relegation after 10 matches played. 

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