KYIV – Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, finds himself at the forefront of multiple crises as he strives to lead a nation strained by nearly four years of relentless conflict following Russia’s extensive invasion.
For over a week, Zelenskyy has been grappling with the repercussions of a $100 million corruption scandal that has ensnared high-ranking officials and close associates. The pressure intensifies as the United States presents a peace proposal, co-created with Russia, demanding substantial concessions from Ukraine, while offering seemingly minimal compromises from Russia to end the ongoing war.
This situation unfolds against the backdrop of Russia’s slow but persistent progress along the extensive 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line, coupled with relentless bombardments targeting Ukraine’s power plants. These attacks have led to significant electricity shortages just as the colder months approach.
Here are five key points about the mounting challenges Zelenskyy faces:
Internal Dissent
Within his own political faction, Zelenskyy is dealing with dissent as lawmakers rebel following revelations by the country’s anti-corruption agencies that $100 million was siphoned off from the energy sector through illicit kickbacks involving contractors.
After investigators publicized their findings, Zelenskyy dismissed two top officials and imposed sanctions on close associates. One Zelenskyy associate implicated in the scheme, Tymur Mindich, has reportedly fled the country. Mindich is a partner in a media production company that Zelenskyy was a co-owner of before he became president.
Some Ukrainian lawmakers and activists are calling on the president to sack his powerful chief of staff, Andrii Yermak.
Neither Zelenskyy nor Yermak have been accused of wrongdoing by investigators. But because Yermak is widely believed to decide key government appointments and to have sway in top political affairs, lawmakers believe he should take responsibility as a way to help restore the public’s trust.
The Servant of the People party that Zelenskyy leads won over two-thirds of parliamentary seats in 2019. But some politicians warn Zelenskyy could lose his parliamentary majority, or face a split in his party, if he doesn’t part ways with Yermak.
Many of Zelenskyy’s political allies feel something has to change, even if they have not gone public with their concerns, said Mykola Davidiuk, an independent political expert. One of the chief criticisms of Zelenskyy’s government is that too much power is concentrated in the hands of Yermak and his advisers, Davidiuk said.
“The management style of Zelenskyy is not working,” he said.
How decisively Zelenskyy responds to the corruption scandal could determine whether the fallout damages Ukraine’s standing with allies, said Davidiuk.
Zelenskyy’s hold on power not imminently at risk
Russia’s invasion triggered martial law in Ukraine, indefinitely postponing presidential and parliamentary elections.
So even if Zelenskyy’s grip on parliament weakens and his popularity plummets, he is highly unlikely to be unseated while the war is still going on — unless he voluntarily resigns.
Ukraine’s presidential term is normally five years and, before the war, the next elections had been scheduled for spring of 2024.
The growing political headwinds Zelenskyy faces could challenge his ability to push through parliament any potential peace deal being negotiated with Russia. And if he were to seek reelection after the war, his chances could be hurt if Yermak is still in the picture, political analysts say.
A former general is seen as a rival, but denies political aspirations
No elected Ukrainian opposition figures pose a viable threat to Zelenskyy.
One potential challenger could be Ukraine’s former army chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who oversaw several successful counteroffensives in the first year of the war and was sacked by the Ukrainian president in late 2023.
Zaluzhnyi now serves as Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK.
Zaluzhnyi denies any intention to enter politics, but polls in Ukraine show him as theoretically competitive with Zelenskyy, keeping speculation alive that he could be convinced to run in the next election.
US and Russia design a plan to end the war in Ukraine
The U.S. and Russia have drawn up a plan aimed at ending the war in Ukraine that calls for major concessions from Kyiv, according to a person briefed on the plan, including granting some demands the Kremlin has made repeatedly since it invaded early in 2022.
The plan calls in part for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia and to abandon certain weaponry, according to the person, who was not authorized to comment on the plan publicly. It would also include the rollback of some critical U.S. military assistance.
Russia, as part of the proposal, would be given effective control of the entire eastern Donbas region — an area Moscow has long sought — even though Ukraine is still in control of part of it.
Zelenskyy has previously rejected the same conditions, describing them as unconstitutional and unjust. Zelenskyy has yet to comment on the new U.S. plan.
Reports about the plan came out just as Zelenskyy was facing increased unrest over the corruption scandal. “The timing is very damaging for Ukraine,” said Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine expert at Chatham House.
“Zelenskyy is vulnerable. Both the U.S. and Russia (saw) the domestic scandal and decided to put more pressure on him to concede to a Russian plan,” Lutsevych said. But the effort may not work out as envisioned, she said, noting that European allies are coming to Ukraine’s defense and speaking out against the plan.
Pressure on the front and across the country
Against this backdrop, Russia’s better equipped army has scaled up attacks along the front line and against energy facilities in the rear, putting further strain on Ukraine.
The Russian army continues to steadily advance in multiple areas. In the northeastern Kharkiv region, Russian forces are pushing on the cities of Kupiansk and Lyman, which Ukraine wrested back from Russia in the first year of the war. But the fiercest battles are around the besieged Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in the eastern Donetsk region.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power plants in November have resulted in some of the worst electricity shortages since the war began.
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