Former President Donald Trump has unveiled a comprehensive 28-point plan aimed at ending the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Central to his proposal is the assertion that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy lacks the leverage to sustain military operations and should therefore consider a settlement that largely benefits Moscow.
Trump, whose critical stance towards Zelenskyy dates back to his previous presidential term, has set a deadline for the Ukrainian leader to respond to his administration’s peace proposal by the coming Thursday.
Speaking on Friday, Trump insisted, “He’s going to have to approve it,” though he adopted a slightly more conciliatory tone the following day, expressing a desire to “get to peace.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt emphasized on Thursday that Trump’s strategy acknowledges the current “realities of the situation” and represents a “best win-win scenario, where both parties gain more than they must give.”
In response to Zelenskyy’s initial reluctance towards the plan, Trump reminisced about a past Oval Office meeting with the Ukrainian leader, recalling, “You remember, right in the Oval Office, not so long ago, I said, ‘You don’t have the cards.'”
When asked if this proposal was his final offer to resolve the Ukraine conflict, Trump indicated that further negotiations might be possible, suggesting that the plan is not set in stone.
Still, asked what would happen if Ukraine and Zelenskyy ultimately reject the proposal, the president turned almost dismissive: “Then he can continue to fight his little heart out.”
Zelenskyy is now in a vulnerable spot
The mounting pressure from Trump comes as Zelenskyy is dealing with fallout over $US100 million ($154 million) in kickbacks for contracts with the state-owned nuclear energy company.
The scandal led to the resignations of top Cabinet ministers and implicated other Zelenskyy associates.
Konstantin Sonin, a political economist and Russia expert at the University of Chicago, said, “what Donald Trump is certainly extremely good at is spotting weak spots of people”.
One of the 28 elements of Trump’s proposal calls for elections to be held within 100 days of enactment of the agreement.
“I think it’s a rationalistic assessment that there is more leverage over Zelenskyy than over Putin,” Sonin said.
He added, “Zelenskyy’s back is against the wall” and “his government could collapse if he agrees” to the US proposal.
All the while, Ukraine is increasingly showing signs of strain on the battlefield after years of war against a vastly larger and better-equipped Russian military.
Ukraine is desperately trying to fend off relentless Russian aerial attacks that have brought rolling blackouts across the country on the brink of winter.
Kyiv is also grappling with doubts about the way ahead.
A European plan to finance next year’s budget for Ukraine through loans linked to frozen Russian funds is now in question.
The Trump proposal in its current form also includes several elements that would cut deeply into Ukrainian pride, David Silbey, a military historian at Cornell University, said.
One provision calls on Russia and Ukraine to abolish “all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education,” and “all Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited”.
That element could be seen by the Ukrainian side as giving credence to Putin’s airing of distorted historical narratives to legitimise the 2022 invasion.
Putin has said the war is in part an effort to “denazify” Ukraine and complained of the country’s “neo-Nazi regime” as a justification for Russia’s invasion.
In fact, in Ukraine’s last parliamentary election in 2019, support for far-right candidates was 2 per cent, significantly lower than in many other European countries.
The plan’s provision is “very clearly an attempt to build up Putin’s claim to Russian cultural identity within Ukraine,” Silbey said.
He added, “From territory loss to the substantial reduction of the Ukrainian military to cultural concessions that have been demanded, I just don’t think Zelenskyy could do this deal and look his public in the eye again.”
