In the heart of Tel Aviv, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed deep concern over the widespread protests unfolding across Iran. He emphasized that Israel is “closely monitoring” these developments, particularly amidst U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric towards Tehran, which could potentially transform domestic unrest into a broader regional conflict.
Speaking at the weekly cabinet meeting, Netanyahu commended the bravery of Iranian citizens, describing their courage as inspiring to both Israelis and the wider international community. He condemned the violent crackdowns on protesters, expressing a hopeful vision for future relations between Israel and Iran once the latter is liberated from what he termed “the yoke of tyranny.”
In a late-night discussion on Saturday, Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed several pressing issues, with Iran being a focal point. An Israeli official, requesting anonymity due to media restrictions, confirmed the dialogue between the two leaders.
Despite the tense situation, the Israeli military has not issued any new directives for civilians to seek refuge near bomb shelters. This is a marked difference from previous times when specific threats necessitated such precautions. The military maintains that the Iranian protests remain an “internal Iranian matter,” yet it assured the public of its preparedness to act decisively if necessary.
A former Israeli intelligence officer opined that it is improbable Israel would initiate an attack on Iran. Despite the current instability within Iran’s leadership, prompted by the ongoing protests, Israel seems inclined to maintain its stance unless provoked.
A former Israeli intelligence official said Israel is unlikely to instigate an attack against Iran, even though Israel could have an easy target as Iranian leadership is weakened and distracted by the protests roiling the country.
“From an Iranian standpoint, the last thing Iran wants to see is diverting their attention towards Israel,” said Danny Citrinowicz, who once headed research on Iran in one of the Israeli military’s intelligence branches and is now a senior researcher with the Israeli defense think tank the Institute for National Security Studies.
“Their priority, first and foremost, is to retrieve the calmness and stability in Iran.”
Neither side has an appetite for another war
The current situation in Iran is so uncertain that Israel is likely to wait and see what will happen next, Citrinowicz said. He added that “neither side has an appetite” to start a new round of the 12-day war this past summer.
The war began with Israel targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites, saying it could not allow Tehran to develop atomic weapons and that it feared the Islamic Republic was close. Iran has long maintained that its program is peaceful.
Israeli strikes on Iran killed 1,190 people and wounded another 4,475, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. Iran’s missile barrages killed almost 30 people in Israel and wounded 1,000.
On Sunday, Iran’s parliament speaker warned the U.S. military and Israel would be “legitimate targets” if America strikes the Islamic Republic. Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf made the threat as lawmakers rushed the dais in the Iranian parliament, shouting: “Death to America!”
Trump, who has posted a number of times on social media about Iran over the weekend, has a history of following through on threats to attack. “Do not play games with President Trump. When he says he’ll do something, he means it,” the State Department warned on Saturday.
Citrinowicz said that an attack, either American or Israeli, could have the opposite impact on the protests, possibly even weakening the protests by fostering a sense of patriotism and uniting against a common enemy.
The U.S. both brokered the ceasefire and assisted Israel during the Israel-Iran war this past summer, by dropping bunker-buster bombs on multiple Iranian nuclear sites — a move that was crucial for Netanyahu to declare to the Israeli public that Israel had achieved its objectives against Iran’s nuclear program and accept Trump’s truce.
Israel doesn’t want to meddle with an internal Iranian affair
“What Israel is really concerned with is ballistic missiles, and stuff like that, not what kind of regime is going to be in Iran,” said Menahem Merhavy, an expert on Iran from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
“Unless there’s something really dramatic happening with missiles, I don’t see Israel stepping into this.”
And an Iranian attack against Israel would be “a suicide note for the regime,” Merhavy said, because there will be little outcry if Israel responds strongly against the Iranian leadership given the outcry over their hardhanded response to the protests. “There are few tears that will be shed if, say, Israel kills the minister of foreign affairs,” Merhavy said.
He noted that Israel could help on the margins, like enabling internet access to certain individuals or leaders, but said even that is doubtful.
“Israel doesn’t want to meddle with this. It’s internally an Iranian matter,” Merhavy said.
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