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In the midst of a bustling election rally in Kawagoe, Saitama Prefecture, Japan’s Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed supporters as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). This event, held on Tuesday, February 3, 2026, underscores the political momentum building as traders brace for potential market fluctuations with the upcoming lower house election on February 8. (Photo by Soichiro Koriyama/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
As the election day draws near, Prime Minister Takaichi appears set to guide her ruling coalition to a commanding victory, according to a recent poll by Nikkei. The survey, conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, suggests that the LDP, in partnership with the Japan Innovation Party, could capture over 300 out of the 465 available seats in the House of Representatives.
This prediction aligns with another survey published by the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun, which similarly anticipates that Takaichi’s coalition will secure more than 300 seats.
Meanwhile, the Central Reform Alliance, a coalition formed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, faces a challenging election. The Nikkei poll forecasts that their current holding of 167 seats could be slashed by half in this election cycle.
The findings echo an earlier poll by the Japanese daily Asahi Shimbun, which also projected that the ruling bloc would gain more than 300 seats.
The Central Reform Alliance — an alliance of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito — is forecast to have its seat count roughly halved from the current 167 seats, according to the Nikkei poll.
Separate polling by Kyodo News suggests the LDP could secure a single-party majority of more than 233 seats on its own.
According to Nikkei, the LDP now has its sights on surpassing 261 seats, a threshold that would allow it to control all parliamentary committees and chair positions.
A two-thirds majority in the Lower House would also give the ruling party the power to override an Upper House veto when it comes to passing legislation.
The election follows political upheaval last year, when the LDP lost its majority in the Upper House, and a Lower House defeat in 2024, which prompted then-Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to resign in September.
The poll also comes as U.S. President Donald Trump publicly expressed support for the ruling coalition, announcing in a Truth Social post that he planned to meet Takaichi on March 19.
Trump added, “it is my Honor to give a Complete and Total Endorsement of her, and what her highly respected Coalition is representing. SHE WILL NOT LET THE PEOPLE OF JAPAN DOWN!”
Takaichi had staked her political future on this election, vowing to resign if the ruling coalition fails to secure a majority.
With her high personal approval ratings, the fiercely conservative prime minister is looking to convert that popularity into votes for the LDP and her coalition.
Kristi Govella, Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, previously told CNBC that a clear victory would reflect Takaichi’s personal popularity, instead of any improvements in economic conditions in Japan.
“Little else has changed since July when the LDP was drubbed at the polls,” Govella added.
