FRANKFURT – In a notable move, the U.S. Treasury Department has granted India a 30-day window to continue purchasing Russian oil, highlighting a shift in Moscow’s economic dynamics amidst the ongoing conflict in Iran. This access to Russia’s oil reserves aids the Kremlin in sustaining its military efforts in Ukraine.

The announcement from the Treasury Department allows India to procure Russian crude oil and petroleum products until April 4. This decision aims to alleviate the pressure on global oil prices, which significantly impacts fuel costs for American consumers.

The situation underscores the complicated geopolitical landscape, where the U.S.-Israeli tensions with Iran are causing fluctuations in the oil and gas markets, with Russia’s crude playing an increasingly vital role.

The scenario is a tangled web of oil trade dynamics, international tariffs, and the influence of two concurrent wars.

Following Russia’s extensive military action in Ukraine in February 2022, which led to a European Union boycott, China and India emerged as the primary markets for Russian oil.

Previously, U.S. President Donald Trump had imposed a 25% tariff on India for its ongoing Russian oil purchases. However, this tariff was lifted by Trump on February 6, after India reportedly agreed to cease buying Russian oil, which led to a notable decrease in India’s oil imports from Russia.

On Friday, international benchmark Brent crude rose to $89 per barrel, up from just under $73 a week ago, on the eve of the new war in the Middle East. Russia’s Urals blend export hit $70, up from below $40 as recently as December.

The widening war in Iran and the risk of Iranian drone or missile attacks has shut down almost all tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the only sea passage out of Persian Gulf and the conduit for 20% of the world economy’s oil needs.

Tankers traveling through the strait, which is bordered in the north by Iran, carry oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Iran. Now nothing is going through.

Soaring oil prices after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint have meant at least a temporary reversal of fortune for Russia’s fossil fuel revenues.

That revenue had dwindled due to previously weak global prices and tightening Western sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers with obscure ownership used to evade a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven democracies, as well as sanctions against Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.

A welcome waiver

In granting a month’s reprieve to India, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the 30-day period would “not provide significant financial benefit” to the Russian government as it only applied to Russian oil stranded on tankers after no customer could be found.

Analysts estimated that could be some 125 million barrels of crude.

“This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage,” Bessent said on X.

Russian oil still trades at a considerable discount to international benchmark Brent. However, Russian crude is now well above the benchmark of $59 per barrel that was assumed in the Russian Finance Ministry’s budget plan for 2026.

Oil and gas tax revenues can amount to 20% to 30% of the Russian federal budget. Tax is based on the price of oil once Russian producers have covered their costs of around $15 per barrel, so a fall in the price can substantially reduce revenue to the government.

Additionally, the halt in production of ship-borne liquefied natural gas, or LNG, by major supplier Qatar — suspended after an Iranian drone strike on Qatar’s largest LNG plant early on in the Iran war — will sharply increase global competition for available cargoes, including those from Russia.

Prices for future delivery of natural gas have soared in Europe, raising questions about the EU’s plans to halt its remaining imports of Russian gas by 2027.

An unpredictable future

Much depends on how long the war with Iran lasts. In the first week, the effects of the conflict that began with the United States and Israel’s Feb. 28 strikes on Iran are widening and now encompass more than a dozen countries.

Oil market analysts say that if it ends within a week or two, oil prices could quickly fall to prewar levels around $65 per barrel and Russia would see little benefit.

However, a longer conflict — one that leaves long-term damage to oil fields, pipelines and terminals in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait, and sends oil prices over $100 per barrel — could deliver a lasting windfall to Russia.

Russia had seen state oil and gas revenue fall to a four-year low of 393 billion rubles ($5 billion) in January and the budget shortfall of 1.7 trillion rubles ($21.8 billion) for that month was the biggest on record, according to Finance Ministry figures.

Economic growth has stagnated as massive military spending has leveled off. As oil and gas revenues to the state budget fell, President Vladimir Putin has resorted to tax increases and increased borrowing from compliant domestic banks to keep state finances on an even keel in the fifth year of the war.

Asked about the waiver, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted the increased demand on Russian oil amid the Mideast war and said that “India and China are guided by their national interests, and we do the same.”

“We continue our cooperation, including the energy field and energy trade, with India and China,” Peskov said.

“We note a significant increase in demand for Russian energy resources in connection with the Iran war,” he added. “Russia has been a reliable supplier of oil and gas. It can guarantee all contracted supplies.”