Experts emphasize the urgency for the United States and Israel to address the security of Iran’s stockpile of nuclear materials and scientific equipment, cautioning that it could fall into the wrong hands if not promptly secured. This task is critical following the extensive damage from “Operation Epic Fury,” and requires more than just remote intervention.
According to Andrew Apostolou from the Britain Israel Communications and Research Center, while airstrikes can damage many components of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, they cannot eliminate every threat. He suggests that the establishment of a cooperative regime is essential for comprehensive security, warning of the perilous scenario of “loose nukes.”
Despite significant portions of Iran’s nuclear facilities, such as Fordow and Isfahan, being buried under debris, there remains a substantial risk of unsecured materials. A looming threat is the potential for insiders to leverage their nuclear expertise or access to materials as a means to escape the conflict-ridden nation.
“The danger is loose nukes.”
Much of Iran’s nuclear program remains buried beneath piles of rubble in sights including Fordow and Isfahan. But that doesn’t mean all of it has been secured.
A top risk is that someone on the inside may seek to trade nuclear know-how or material in return for a way out of the now war-torn country.
“When you have that kind of knowledge and there’s a lot of bad actors out there looking for it, you have a survival ticket,” Apostolou said.
That could allow adversaries like North Korea to boost their existing program, he warned.
Pakistan, nations in Russia’s periphery that have been jarred by the invasion of Ukraine, or even some of the Gulf states getting hammered by Iranian missile attacks, could also want to get their hands on Iran’s nuclear material.
The current airstrikes follow whatever damage was wrought during the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June, when US strikes blasted away at three top nuclear sites including its Fordow facility. The US also destroyed tunnel entrances to the Isfahan facility.
“But it’s not clear how far that destruction goes back,” said Andrea Stricker, director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies nonproliferation program.
One chilling example of how easy it could be for nukes to get into the wrong hands came in the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Locals looted the Al Tuwaitha nuclear complex, making off with barrels containing natural uranium, known as yellowcake. It turns out they were more interested in the barrels themselves than the yellowcake — using them to store food and water until they started getting sick, presumably from radiation effects.
“There could always been enterprising individuals who are part of the workforce at these sites who could do something or who could take something,” said Stricker.
Pentagon boss Pete Hegseth was vague when asked at US Central Command Thursday about securing Iran’s nuclear material, dodging a question about whether US might use special forces would help secure it.
“As it pertains to nuclear material and things like that, one of the objectives the president has always said is that Iran will not have a nuclear bomb, nuclear capabilities,” he said.
“But we will never disclose what we will or will not do inside operational plans. So [Centcom Commander] Admiral [Brad] Cooper’s got a plan, we’re working on that plan, and targets will be struck or not struck, on what we want to achieve,” he said.
“The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed. Their ballistic missile retaliation is decreasing every day, their navy is being wiped out, their production capacity is being demolished, and proxies are hardly putting up a fight. Operation Epic Fury is meeting or surpassing all of its goals, and the United States will continue to dominate,” said White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly.
US and Israeli airstrikes have taken out scores of Iranian leaders since the attacks began, and last summer Israel eliminated top Iranian nuclear scientists.
Still, there are “probably hundreds of people that you’d be worried about with significant know-how. They’ve definitely trained the next generation,” said Stricker. Anyone who worked at a nuclear facilities, including security personnel, could be a risk.
“Terrorists would be a concern for radiological sources because of the dirty bomb risk,” she added, even though it is enriched at a lower level that bomb material.
But there is a potential rosy scenario — if brave Iranians step forward.
As neighboring Iraq’s clandestine nuclear program came under pressure in the 90s, Iraqi scientist Dr. Mahdi Obeidi made off with plans and equipment and hid it at home.
After the US invasion in 2003, he eventually brought word to the Americans, George W. Bush Administration officials said at the time.
They got the location of what he had, and Obeidi got a ticket to the US, where he still lives. He later wrote a book about it: “The Bomb in My Garden.”
