California Governor Race Shocker: GOP Candidates Take Unexpected Lead, Democrats Scramble

California Democrats are confronting a daunting challenge in the upcoming 2026 governor’s race, as newly released internal polling data reveals that two Republicans, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, are currently leading the pack for the June 2 primary election.

In response, Democratic Party leaders organized a press briefing on Tuesday to highlight the findings of the survey, aiming to raise awareness about the situation. Under the state’s primary system, only the top two candidates will proceed to the general election.

State Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks remarked, “The initial polling indicates that two Republicans are ahead, while several Democratic candidates are lagging.”

Hicks continued, “This underscores the potential risk, albeit slim, of Democrats not securing a spot in the general election.”

He further emphasized, “This serves as a crucial reminder that every candidate needs to carefully evaluate their path to victory, and I urge them to do so.”

Within Democratic circles, there is growing concern that the crowded field might result in Hilton and Bianco advancing to the runoff, potentially paving the way for California’s first Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011.

The survey — conducted in mid-March among 2,000 likely voters — comes after the cancellation of Tuesday night’s gubernatorial debate at USC following Democratic legislators and candidates of color expressing outrage about the lack of diversity.

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Along with Hilton and Bianco, the three leading Democratic candidates in the race who were set to take part — Rep. Eric Swalwell, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer and former congresswoman Katie Porter — are all white.

Other candidates in the race were furious when San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who is also white, was the sixth and final candidate included in the USC debate despite polling lower than former U.S. Secretary of Health Xavier Becerra. Mahan’s campaign has substantial financial backing from big tech players.

Other Democrats who are still running despite polling in single-digits include former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former state controller Betty Yee.

Poll results from the Democratic Party showed Hilton and Bianco leading with 16% and 14% of the vote, respectively. Swalwell, Porter and Steyer were tied at 10%. Becerra, Villaraigosa and Mahan each registered 3%, as Yee (2%) and Thurmond (1%) rounded out the results.

Hicks, who changed course in a matter of weeks from saying the party would let the process play out to then calling on low-polling Democratic candidates to drop out of the race, stopped short of naming specific candidates Tuesday.

“There’s 70 days to go until election day, 40 days until ballots are in the hands of voters,” Hicks said. “We are prepared to do what is required to ensure that we elect a governor in November of 2026.”

He later added, “Would I prefer not to put forward a survey that showed two Republicans leading? Of course.”

Tommy Vietor, a co-host for the left-leaning podcast Pod Save America, called the situation a “mess” on social media Tuesday morning.

“The CA Democratic Party needs to get together ASAP and put a tent on this circus,” Vietor wrote. “The primary is in June. Ballots start getting mailed May 4th. Candidates who aren’t above 5% in the polls by April 15th need to drop out and endorse someone else to narrow the field.”

Gov. Gavin Newsom has yet to endorse anyone in the race, and Hicks seemed non-committal when asked if the governor should put his thumb on the scale in pressuring out low-polling candidates.

“I think that’s a decision for the governor,” Hicks said. “And as far as the timing, only time will tell.”