As the conflict in the Middle East stretches into its second month, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has issued a stark warning: there appears to be no foreseeable end to the turmoil that has already forced a million people from their homes.

Lebanon finds itself embroiled in the broader conflict involving the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other. The tensions escalated dramatically after US-Israeli forces launched attacks on Iran on February 28. In retaliation, Hezbollah, a group backed by Iran, fired rockets into northern Israel on March 2.

In response, Israel initiated a comprehensive air campaign, coupled with ground operations into southern Lebanon. The resulting violence has been catastrophic, with over 1,300 casualties reported from Israeli strikes. The Lebanese health ministry has disclosed that approximately one-fifth of Lebanon’s population has been displaced as a consequence of the hostilities. Furthermore, Israeli evacuation orders now encompass roughly 15 percent of Lebanese territory.

Israel has announced that it is establishing a “buffer zone” stretching up to the Litani River, which empties into the Mediterranean Sea about 30 kilometers north of the Israeli border. This move has sparked further tensions with the Lebanese government, which condemns the operation as a breach of national sovereignty. The United Nations’ human rights chief has also criticized Israel’s actions, particularly the extensive evacuation orders, highlighting the severe impact on civilian lives.

Israel said it was seizing a “buffer zone” up to the Litani River, which meets the Mediterranean about 30km north of the Israeli border.

The Lebanese government has described the operation as a violation of the country’s sovereignty and the United Nations human rights chief has criticised Israel’s actions, particularly its use of widespread evacuation orders.

The conflict has also exposed tensions between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, which banned the group’s military activities after its latest attacks.

Salem said Lebanon was “a victim of a war, one whose outcomes and end date no one can predict”.

“The positions of Israeli officials, and the practices of their army, reveal far-reaching goals, including a significant expansion in the occupation of Lebanese territories, dangerous talk about establishing buffer zones or security belts, and the displacement of more than one million Lebanese.”

What is Hezbollah?

Hezbollah is a Lebanese political party and militant group formed in 1982 after Israeli forces invaded southern Lebanon. Its name means “Party of God” in Arabic.

The group is driven by its opposition to Israel and Western influence in the Middle East and is closely aligned with Iran. It receives weapons, training and funding from Iran and acts as a proxy for the government.

It is known as a “state within a state” because it governs parts of Lebanon’s Shia-majority areas in parts of Beirut and southern Lebanon independently from the Lebanese government.

In 2006, Hezbollah fighters launched a cross-border attack against Israel, triggering a 34-day war. More than 1,100 Lebanese, mostly civilians, were killed, as well as 119 Israeli soldiers and 45 civilians.

In 2021, Hezbollah’s former leader Hassan Nasrallah — who was killed by Israeli airstrikes in 2024 — claimed the group had 100,000 trained fighters. Independent estimates put the figure at between 20,000 and 50,000.

The group is listed as a terrorist organisation by countries including Australia, the United States, Israel, Germany and the United Kingdom. The European Union lists only its military wing as a terrorist organisation.

Primarily made up of Shia Muslims, Hezbollah itself makes no distinction between its political and military wings.

What was Hezbollah’s involvement in the Hamas-Israel war?

The war began when the Palestinian group Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing more than 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

In response, Israel launched a bombardment of the Gaza Strip, killing more than 73,000 people, according to the health ministry in Gaza. A fragile ceasefire was signed last year, though both sides have been accused of breaching it.

Clashes between Hezbollah and Israel began in October 2023, when the group fired rockets in support of its ally Hamas.

The conflict escalated in 2024 when an Israeli airstrike killed Hezbollah’s longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah. Israel launched a ground invasion into southern Lebanon before the sides agreed to a ceasefire in November 2024.

Why is Hezbollah involved in the current conflict?

Hezbollah’s decision to launch fresh strikes against Israel — which it said were in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — angered many in Lebanon who accused the group of giving Israel an excuse to escalate.

Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said, from Hezbollah’s perspective, entering the regional war was rational.

He said Iran was facing an existential threat, and Hezbollah “is backed and funded and trained” by Iran.

The collapse of the Islamic Republic would “basically mean the death of Hezbollah as a project”, he added.

Had Hezbollah not entered the war, Hage Ali said the group would have expected that Israel would have launched an offensive against it sooner or later.

From Hezbollah’s perspective, he said: “There’s no point in continuing to be a sitting duck until Israel finishes off your main ally and comes for you. It makes more sense that you join your ally in the war and try to achieve a ceasefire as part of a package.”

What is Hezbollah’s relationship with the Lebanese government?

After Hezbollah launched fresh strikes against Israel on 2 March, the Lebanese government banned military activities by the group and demanded it hand over its weapons.

Salam said Hezbollah’s attack showed disregard for “the will of the majority of Lebanese” and that Lebanon rejected being dragged into the regional conflict.

The decision was rejected by senior Hezbollah politician Mohammed Raad, who said there was no justification for the “government to take bold and confrontational measures against Lebanese citizens who reject occupation”.

In 2008, an attempt by the Lebanese government to outlaw Hezbollah’s military telecom network led to armed conflict, during which Hezbollah fighters took over parts of Beirut.

Paul Salem of the Middle East Institute think-tank said the decision to ban Hezbollah’s military activities was historic, but implementing it would be challenging.

“A clash is possible, and maybe a clash here and there is necessary if the state is going to behave like a state and implement its laws,” he said.

“The state is not interested in confrontation, they are very aware ⁠of the risks, and they are not going to seek a broad confrontation but this sends an important signal to Hezbollah that they have gone way beyond the pale.”

— With additional reporting by the Associated Press and Reuters.

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