ISLAMABAD — President Trump’s imposition of a naval blockade on Iran’s ports is strategically aimed at one of Iran’s most vulnerable areas, potentially prompting Tehran to reconsider the US’s peace propositions, according to insights from a former high-ranking Pakistani official shared with The Post on Monday. This conversation followed a weekend of discussions in Islamabad that concluded without an agreement.
“Though it might be incorrect, my intuition is that Iran will respond to the ‘take it or leave it’ offer — either by accepting it, outright rejecting it, or proposing modifications,” said retired Lt. Gen. Muhammad Saeed. He elaborated that Iran is likely keen on returning to the negotiation table with the US, being acutely aware of the economic difficulties faced by its citizens.
Even before the conflict erupted on February 28, Iran’s economy was in turmoil, largely due to international sanctions that led to severe financial instability. This situation resulted in a significant devaluation of the currency, sparking widespread and sometimes deadly protests across the nation in late December and early January.
“Regardless of their perceived success,” Saeed commented, “Iran understands the economic strain on its population. They are aware of the inflation rates and the severe depreciation of their currency.”
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Perhaps most crucially, he added, the regime likely is aware of its military’s limits.
“While they would keep firing drones and missiles for a few more days, they don’t have compatible military means” to counter the US and Israel, “and they don’t have cost-effective military options to fall back on.”
While the blockade will likely spur an Iranian response, former State Department official Mark Kimmitt said it was more likely Tehran would want to continue negotiations, rather than accept what Vice President JD Vance called a “best and final offer” Sunday.
“The blockade of the Strait should bring the Iranians back to the negotiation table, but not immediately,” said Kimmitt, who served as assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs under former President George W. Bush.
“While the Iranians might express a willingness to discuss uranium enrichment, it is highly unlikely the current Iranian leadership would ever seriously consider terminating the program.”
