The ceasefire, which has been in place for two weeks, was set to end at 0000 GMT on Wednesday, corresponding to 10 a.m. AEST.

Although neither the United States nor Iran has publicly confirmed any specific timing for new discussions or an extension of the ceasefire, it is noteworthy that abrupt changes have frequently occurred in the lead-up to previous negotiation rounds.

Here is the current status of the ceasefire, potential talks in Pakistan, and other factors influencing the ongoing conflict:

On Tuesday, two regional officials informed The Associated Press that both the United States and Iran have indicated their willingness to engage in a new series of discussions.

Mediators from Pakistan have received confirmation that key negotiators, including U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, are anticipated to arrive in Islamabad early Wednesday to spearhead their respective delegations, according to the officials.

As of Tuesday evening, Pakistan’s Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, stated that Iran had yet to officially confirm its participation in further talks, with the ceasefire deadline looming.

As of Tuesday evening, Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said Iran had not formally confirmed it would participate in more talks, noting the looming deadline.

“An Iranian decision to attend the talks before the end of the two-week ceasefire is critical,” he said in a post on X.

The White House said Vance was still in Washington, and gave no word on whether he would be traveling to Pakistan.

Serious challenges face any upcoming talks, about the future of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear program and other issues. Meanwhile, Iran targeted ships in the strait over the weekend.

The US also attacked and boarded one Iranian vessel that tried to outrun the American naval blockade in the strait – signalling that the situation remains volatile and a resumption of the war isn’t out of the question.

A fragile ceasefire risks showing cracks

The current truce between Iran, Israel and the United States began April 8 after multiple deadlines posed by US President Donald Trump that threatened Iran’s very “civilisation” at one point.

Iranian attacks targeted Gulf Arab states and Israel after it had started. Another mysterious attack struck an Iranian oil refinery on an island as well that afternoon. However, the ceasefire has broadly held.

An earlier round of negotiations between Iran and the US was held in Pakistan from April 11 into the early morning the following day. Vance took part in the highest-level talks between America and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which ended without an agreement.

Since this weekend, authorities in Islamabad have made preparations similar to those that accompanied the first talks, suggesting another round loomed. The White House has said that Vance would be returning to Islamabad for a new round of talks in the coming days with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20 per cent of all natural gas and oil passes, remains effectively closed over Iranian attacks in the waterway. That included some attacks Saturday.

There’s also a fear that Iran mined a portion of the strait used by transiting ships during peacetime. Since the war, Iran reportedly has been charging as much as $US2 million ($2.8 million) a vessel to allow them to pass.

Opening the strait remains a key focus of negotiations and Tehran’s strongest leverage against Washington, particularly as countries around the world have begun rationing energy and warning of shortages of jet fuel.

The United States, meanwhile, has begun blocking ships from Iranian ports. The US Navy attacked an Iranian container ship that tried to run through the US blockade this weekend, with Marines rappelling onto it from helicopters.

Iran’s nuclear stockpile remains in country

All of Iran’s highly enriched uranium remains in the country, likely entombed at enrichment sites bombed by the US during a 12-day war last June.

Iran hasn’t enriched since then but maintains it has the right to do so for peaceful purposes and denies seeking nuclear weapons.

Trump, along with Israel, has called for Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear program and give up its stockpile.

Iran rejected that in its 10-point proposal for ending the war.

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