Economic sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran have reached unprecedented levels of influence, yet inconsistencies in their application have hindered their maximum effect, according to insights from a former Treasury sanctions expert.
Miad Maleki, a key figure in the U.S. Treasury Department’s sanctions campaigns against Iran and its affiliated proxy groups, highlighted in a video interview that the current scenario represents a unique alignment of economic, political, and diplomatic pressure against Tehran.
“In the history of our conflict with Iran, since 1979, we’ve never wielded as much leverage as we do today,” Maleki noted.
This evaluation coincides with remarks from former President Donald Trump, who, on Thursday, emphasized the heightened pressure on Iran by stating on Truth Social that the U.S. maintains “total control over the Strait of Hormuz,” effectively “sealed up tight” until Iran agrees to a new agreement.
Maleki believes this period marks a critical juncture as the U.S. deploys multiple pressure tactics—such as sanctions, a naval blockade, and stricter enforcement—simultaneously for the first time in recent years. Unlike previous strategies, the current approach directly targets Iran’s oil exports and the networks facilitating their distribution, potentially triggering a swift economic crisis.
He warns that Iran might deplete its oil storage within two to three weeks, necessitating production cuts, while gasoline shortages could emerge over a similar timeframe due to heavy import dependence. Coupled with an estimated daily economic loss of $435 million, this could strain Iran’s financial system, challenge the regime’s ability to pay salaries, and heighten the risk of civil unrest.
An oil tanker is seen near the terminal at Kharg Island, Iran, as U.S. officials and analysts consider whether seizing the island could significantly impact Iran’s oil exports. (Ali Mohammadi/Bloomberg)
Maleki said the real leverage lies in sustained economic pressure and enforcement.
At the core of that pressure is an Iranian economy he describes as “on the verge of collapse,” driven by years of sanctions and compounded by recent disruptions.
He pointed to triple-digit food inflation, a sharply devalued currency and a roughly 90% collapse in purchasing power, along with potential long-term oil revenue losses of up to $14 billion annually.
Maleki, who is currently a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, estimated that current conditions are costing Iran “about $435 million a day in combined economic damage … with the blockade and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”
A key driver of that pressure is the Strait of Hormuz, long viewed as one of Iran’s primary tools of leverage in global energy markets. Maleki said the dynamic has shifted.
President Donald Trump weighs a potential attack on Iran’s oil hub at Kharg Island amid expert predictions of market chaos. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)
“Iran’s economy relies on the Strait of Hormuz more than any other economy,” he said, calling its closure a form of “economic self-sabotage.”
While countries in Asia — including Japan, South Korea, India and China — are most exposed to disruptions, many have built up reserves. “Japan’s oil reserve is pretty significant. Same with China,” Maleki said.
Still, the region remains heavily dependent on the waterway, with roughly 75% of liquefied natural gas supplies for countries including India, China and South Korea flowing through the strait.
Inside Iran, however, vulnerabilities are more immediate. Despite vast oil reserves, the country imports between 30 million to 60 million liters of gasoline per day to cover a domestic shortfall of up to 35 million liters.
“If they run out of gasoline… they’re going to have a major crisis domestically,” Maleki said, noting that past shortages and price hikes have triggered widespread protests.
The economic pressure is being reinforced by a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iran’s oil exports, the regime’s primary source of revenue.
A billboard showing a portrait of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes, looms over an empty square in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, March 5, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP Photo)
A senior administration official said the Treasury Department is intensifying enforcement under what it describes as an “Economic Fury” campaign, using financial and maritime tools in tandem to squeeze Iran’s revenue streams.
The official said the strategy focuses on “systematically degrading Iran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds,” including by constraining maritime trade through the naval blockade, which targets Iran’s primary source of revenue from oil exports.
Financial pressure is also expanding globally. The official said Treasury has warned banks in China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Oman that facilitating Iranian trade could expose them to secondary sanctions, signaling a more aggressive approach to enforcement beyond Iran’s borders.
Treasury has issued sanctions on more than 1,000 targets since 2025 under the current maximum pressure campaign, the official said, aimed at disrupting Iran’s oil trade and financial networks.
The official added that Iran is facing immediate logistical constraints, warning that storage capacity at Kharg Island — the country’s main oil export terminal — could be filled within days if exports remain blocked, potentially forcing production shut-ins.
“Treasury will continue to freeze the funds stolen by the corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran,” the official warned.
A new analysis from United Against Nuclear Iran said the blockade is already deterring high-value shipments, even as some Iran-linked vessels continue to transit the region.
Iran seized two oil tankers Thursday while former Iranian minister Ezzatollah Zarghami threatened to make the Strait of Hormuz a “massacre and hell” for U.S. forces. (Giuseppe Cacace/AFP)
“Effectiveness should not be measured by the total number of Iran-linked vessels at sea,” the group said in an April 22 statement. “But by whether the U.S. is disrupting high-value Iranian oil exports… and deterring large-scale illicit shipments.”
At least 29 vessels have been turned around or forced back to port, including several very large crude carriers, according to the report.
The blockade, announced April 12 and enforced by U.S. Central Command, is designed to cut off Iranian crude exports, particularly shipments to China, while prioritizing high-impact targets.
While sanctions are clearly biting, Maleki said their impact has been limited by inconsistent enforcement across successive U.S. administrations.
U.S. sanctions on Iran have been in place in various forms for years, targeting the country’s oil exports, banking sector and access to global financial systems.
Under the Obama administration, sanctions pressure was partially lifted under the nuclear deal. The first Trump administration reimposed “maximum pressure,” but enforcement ramped up gradually and lasted only a limited period. The Biden administration later eased enforcement in pursuit of diplomacy.
He argued that cycles of tightening and relief — including sanctions rollback under the Iran nuclear deal and pauses in enforcement — have allowed Tehran to adapt.
“What’s different now,” Maleki said, is the combination of sustained sanctions with real-time enforcement measures that directly restrict Iran’s ability to export oil — a step that was largely absent in earlier phases.
To maximize pressure, Maleki said Washington must sustain enforcement, particularly through secondary sanctions targeting foreign banks and companies facilitating Iranian trade.
Crucially, he downplayed the likelihood that outside powers could offset the pressure.
Anti-regime protests engulf the streets of Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 6, 2025. (Reuters)
“I can’t really point to any other nation… that is going to jump in and give the Iranian regime a lifeline,” he said.
“At some point in the next few weeks to a few months, they’re going to face not just gasoline shortages and oil production disruptions, but also a major banking problem to pay salaries of government employees and IRGC personnel,” he said. “Iranians run out of patience again, as they did before, and they’re back on the street. I’m not quite sure if you’re going to have unpaid IRGC forces willing to go back on the street and kill their fellow Iranians who have the same grievances that they have now, which is a collapsed economy.”
