In a surprising twist, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s supporters could potentially boost Donald Trump’s chances of defeating Kamala Harris in the upcoming presidential election, according to an exclusive DailyMail.com poll. The survey indicates that Kennedy’s backers are twice as likely to favor Trump over Harris. Although Kennedy, the nephew of the iconic JFK, is polling in the single digits, his influence might be pivotal in swinging a tightly contested race, especially in key battleground states where victory hinges on tens of thousands of votes.
This development could gain urgency as Friday approaches, amid rumors that RFK Jr. might exit the race. He is slated to deliver a speech in Phoenix, Arizona, at 2 p.m. Eastern time, addressing the current political climate and outlining his future plans, having already withdrawn his candidacy in that state. Our most recent survey conducted with J.L. Partners from August 7 to 11 reveals that only five percent of 1,001 likely voters would choose Kennedy if the election were imminent.
In this poll, Trump leads with 43 percent, closely followed by Harris at 41 percent. However, when respondents were asked to indicate if they leaned more towards Trump or Harris, the results were telling: 51 percent expressed a preference for the former president, while 26 percent leaned towards Harris. These findings suggest a significant sway in favor of Trump among Kennedy’s supporters.
That could swell Trump’s voter base by a point or two if Kennedy is no longer running. ‘Don’t buy the line that RFK Jr. only makes a small difference to the election,’ said J.L. Partners cofounder James Johnson. ‘This is a major third party candidate dropping out.
‘And our data show that even before that, RFK Jr.’s voters were going to go to Trump by a large margin if their man wasn’t in the race.’ RFK Jr., 70, an environmental lawyer with a nose for conspiracy theories and anti-vax arguments, entered the race as a Democrat. But he switched to independent after failing to find purchase against Biden in the primary contest.
Previous J.L. Partners polls had shown he had picked up more support from the left than the right. ‘The data also show there is a small but significant group of voters who opted for Biden in 2020, moved to RFK Jr, and are now leaning Trump,’ said Johnson. ‘These voters—who used RFK Jr as a sort of gateway drug to backing Trump—could make all the difference in states on a knife-edge, and RFK Jr’s dropping out will give Trump a boost in these states.
‘It is a more significant development than anything out of the DNC this week.’ Trump is on a tour of battleground states and is due to hold a rally near Phoenix soon after RFK Jr’s announcement. His campaign has teased a special guest, heightening speculation that Kennedy will endorse the former president.
During a trip to the southern border on Thursday, Trump said he was open to the possibility, calling it a ‘great honor.’ He also said there might be room in his administration for RFK Jr, the son of Robert Kennedy, JFK’s attorney general. But he will face a battle to win over RFK Jr’s supporters.
Harris communications director Michael Tyler told MSNBC that her campaign would welcome his voters. ‘I think that him dropping out fully cements … that this election is going to be a choice between Vice President Harris, who is fighting for the American people, [and] Donald Trump, who … is simply fighting for himself,’ he said at the Democratic convention in Chicago. Kennedy has endured a turbulent campaign. He recently admitted he dumped a dead bear cub in Manhattan’s Central Park in 2014. And he struggled with strained campaign finances and legal challenges, including a ruling in New York that he should not appear on the ballot in the state because he listed a ‘sham’ address on nominating petitions.
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