While Tony Awards voters remain tight-lipped about their selections, those casting ballots for the Drama Desk Awards are making waves in the prediction markets.
Following Schmigadoon!‘s triumph at the Drama Desk Awards, where it snagged the title of Outstanding Musical, its chances of claiming the Tony Award for Best Musical surged dramatically on the popular prediction platform, Kalshi. The odds jumped from 67.6 percent to a remarkable 81 percent. Conversely, the likelihood of Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) taking home the Tony dipped from 19 percent to a mere nine percent.
The Drama Desk Awards have historically been a bellwether for the Tony Awards’ outcomes.
Over the last quarter-century, 60 percent of shows that won the Drama Desk Award for Outstanding Musical also clinched the Tony Award for Best Musical. A notable example came in 2014 when Drama Desk voters selected A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder over the heavily favored Beautiful: The Carole King Musical, predicting the eventual Tony upset.
The predictive power of the Drama Desk Awards is even more pronounced in other categories.
In the past 25 years, about 73.9 percent of shows honored with the Drama Desk Award for Outstanding Revival of a Play also went on to win the Tony Award for Best Revival of a Play. For instance, after Death of a Salesman secured the Drama Desk Award, its chances of winning the Tony on Kalshi skyrocketed from 78 percent to an impressive 98 percent.
Approximately 73.9 percent of the shows that won the Drama Desk Award for Outstanding Revival of a Play over the past 25 years also won the Tony Award for Best Revival of a Play. After Death of a Salesman took home the Drama Desk Award, its odds of winning the Tony Award on Kalshi soared from 78 percent to a peak of 98 percent.
In addition, 76 percent of the new plays crowned at the Drama Desk Awards since 2000 later won at the Tony Awards. However, the current frontrunner on Kalshi, Liberation, competed at the Drama Desk Awards last season. It lost to Purpose, which later won the Tony Award.
The strongest signal from the Drama Desk Awards is for musical revivals. In the past 25 years, about 82.6 percent of the shows that won the Drama Desk Award for Outstanding Revival of a Musical also won the Tony Award for Best Musical Revival. But, like Liberation, Cats: The Jellicle Ball was nominated last season and did not have to compete against the acclaimed Broadway revival of Ragtime.
The Tony Awards could still turn into a catfight.
