Donald Trump has taken a jab at what he describes as the ‘scum’ involved in disrupting the rapidly growing prediction markets. These markets, which are amassing billions in bets ranging from oil prices to the performance of the New York Knicks, have become a hot topic.
Recently, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) was designated as the chief regulator for these markets, overseeing popular platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
However, Democratic leaders at the state level are advocating for increased oversight. They express concerns that these markets may merely be a modern form of gambling and could potentially enable insider trading.
In response, Trump took to Truth Social on Tuesday evening to emphasize the importance of keeping the CFTC as the sole authority over Prediction Markets, insisting this is vital for their continued success.
Trump further asserted, “Under my leadership, we are establishing ‘rules of the road’ that represent the Gold Standard for the States. We cannot allow individuals like Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker to dictate the rules!”
According to investment bank Bernstein, prediction markets are projected to generate $240 billion in revenue by 2026, with expectations for that figure to soar to $1 trillion by 2030.
Concerns have been raised over large bets made before Trump’s attacks on Iran and Venezuela, fueling speculation of insider trading by people inside the administration.
The President’s family is also closely intertwined with the industry. Don Jr is a paid strategic advisor for Kalshi and invested millions through his venture capital firm into Polymarket.
Donald Trump defended the CFTC’s control over prediction markets and slammed Democratic leaders attempting to ban the platforms in their states in a social media post on Tuesday night
Donald Trump Jr is a paid advisor for Kalshi and a major investor in Polymarket. He also is friendly with Polymarket Founder Shayne Coplan and sits on the company’s board
Don Jr sits on the Polymarket board, and he was photographed closely dining with company Founder Shane Coplan during the 2024 Republican National Convention.
‘Other Countries are after this new form of Financial Market, and we want to remain at the top,’ Trump’s post continued.
‘Likewise, and even more importantly, where we are currently the Crypto (Bitcoin, etc.) Capital of the World, other Countries are trying diligently to replace us in that capacity, but we won’t let that happen.’
Trump’s attack on the Democratic officials comes after Minnesota, New York and Illinois attempted to regulate prediction markets on the state level. Minnesota just passed a ban on prediction markets, prompting the CFTC to sue in retaliation.
Trump also took a shot at his GOP foil, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who is a lobbyist for the gambling industry, which is largely opposed to prediction markets.
The President’s family, including Don Jr and Eric Trump, both have large crypto holdings. An analysis done by Forbes last year claimed that Trump’s crypto holdings have grown to over $1.2 billion.
Democratic Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, who disclosed a $1.4 million profit from blackjack in Las Vegas in October, hit back at Trump’s post, writing: ‘Illinois took action to prevent and ban insider trading with online prediction markets in our state.’
‘The most corrupt President in our nation’s history wants to make sure states like ours can’t regulate prediction markets so his family and administration can keep profiting.’
Polymarket Founder and CEO Shayne Coplan
Democratic Illinois Governor JB Pritzker
Pritzker signed an order banning state employees from using prediction markets in April.
Meanwhile, New York Attorney General Letitia James has sued crypto companies and filed an amicus brief in support of the Massachusetts lawsuit against Kalshi.
The prediction market has raised suspicions for platforming massive gambles on commodities and government operations amid the US-Iran war and other global events.
Fueling speculation about CFTC inefficiency, billions of dollars’ worth of suspicious oil trades changed hands just before Trump announced price-moving news, such as a ceasefire or progress toward a peace deal.
The CFTC is reportedly examining the odd exchange of around $800 million worth of oil futures traded on March 23, just minutes before Trump postponed strikes on Tehran’s energy infrastructure.
The CFTC has not formally announced a probe into the suspicious trades.
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US Army soldier, was arrested earlier this year after betting on US military operations in Venezuela that he had knowledge of.
His roughly $31,000 worth of wagers netted him over $400,000 on Polymarket. The soldier faces a maximum sentence of up to 60 years in prison.
