In a heated race for the 2028 presidential nomination, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is closing in on Vice President JD Vance, according to a new poll released Thursday. The survey, conducted by Emerson College, also reveals former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as the leading contender for the Democratic nomination.
Rubio’s support has surged significantly, climbing by 15 percentage points since February. This upward momentum places him just one point behind Vance, showcasing a dynamic shift in Republican primary voter preferences.
Currently, Vance holds 36% support among likely Republican primary voters. This marks a decline from the commanding 52% he enjoyed in earlier polls conducted in August 2025 and February. Meanwhile, Rubio has seen his backing rise to 35%, a notable increase from the 9% and 20% recorded in the previous surveys.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley are locked in a tie for third place, each garnering 5% support.
“The landscape of the Republican primary has evolved considerably since February,” noted Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Back then, Vance led with 52% while Rubio had 20%. Now, the race between these potential 2028 contenders is neck-and-neck.”
Rubio appears to have captured the favor of Republican primary voters aged over 50, leading Vance by a margin of 41% to 35% in this demographic. Conversely, Vance maintains an edge among younger Republicans under 50, with a lead of 37% to 26%, Kimball added.
About 15% of the 432 GOP voters surveyed remain undecided – up 4 percentage points from the previous polls.
The results come as President Trump has recently began polling the crowd during speeches on whether they prefer Vance or Rubio to take over the MAGA mantle in 2028.
Trump has referred to a potential Vance-Rubio ticket as a “dream team.”
On the Democratic side, Buttigieg has overtaken California Gov. Gavin Newsom as the favorite for the nomination.
Since February 2026, Buttigieg’s support has increased two percentage points, from 16% to 18%.
Newsom’s support, meanwhile, decreased nine points since last August, from 25% to 16%.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) came in third in the poll, with an 11% backing from likely Democratic primary voters.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and former Vice President Kamala Harris tied for fourth with 10% support apiece.
However, Shapiro’s stock has risen 5 points since August 2025, whereas support for the former veep dropped 1 point since that poll.
Rounding out the top 5 is Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear at 9%.
Eighteen percent of Democratic voters are undecided.
