Democrats received a boost in their effort to win control of the Senate on Saturday as new polling showed candidates in Texas and Alaska reaching at least 50% support.
Both contests would become Democratic pickups if the party holds its leads and wins on Nov. 3, which is now just one month away.
In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51% to 45%, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday. President Trump’s approval rating in the state is 40%, while 57% of respondents say they disapprove of his performance.
The survey, which looked at five Republican-held Senate seats, gives Talarico a six-point lead. That advantage is just outside the poll’s 4.5-percentage-point margin of error and is roughly twice as large as his lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average in the Republican-leaning state. A Marist College poll released last week also showed Talarico ahead by six points.
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 50% to 43%, giving her a seven-point advantage that falls outside the poll’s margin of error.
The Texas poll was released days after a recording emerged in which Paxton told conservative donors and lobbyists that “everybody’s numbers dropped” after the Republican Party’s heavily promoted midterm convention in Dallas last month, where Trump addressed the crowd.
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The survey also showed former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio, 49% to 46%. The results were released hours before Trump was scheduled to visit the state to campaign for Husted, who was appointed to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.
In Iowa, where the Senate seat is open, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turk 48% to 47%. Trump won the state with 56% of the vote in 2024. In Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in a century, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton were tied at 45% apiece.
The Senate Leadership Fund, an organization affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), said Friday it would withdraw $10 million from the North Carolina Senate race and redirect the money to Kansas in an effort to protect the Republican majority. In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning Democrats would need to gain four seats on net to take control of the chamber.
When asked Saturday on Fox News Live whether Trump was confident that Whatley would win, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly declined to comment on a specific race. “I can’t comment on specific races, but the president’s incredibly proud of Michael Whatley. Of Course Michael Whatley was a big partner,” she said.
All five races covered in the Saturday polling would become Democratic pickups if those candidates prevail. Republicans control the Senate 53-47. Maine Sen. Susan Collins is also facing a stiff challenge from Democrat Troy Jackson; the two were tied 50-50 in the latest CBS News poll.
Republicans are also targeting two Democratic-held seats considered tossups, in New Hampshire and Michigan. In Michigan, Republican candidate and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) attacked Democrat Abdul El-Sayed on Friday night, calling him a “conman” and criticizing his association with left-wing commentator Hasan Piker.
