The Scottish Conservatives have delivered a crushing defeat to the SNP in the Aberdeen South by-election, securing a result that will reverberate well beyond the constituency.
In a remarkable turnaround, the Tories surged from third place to take the seat by more than 6,000 votes, doubling their vote share to 50 per cent. The scale of the swing made it one of the party’s most striking by-election performances in Scotland in decades.
The victory also carried historic weight. It marked the first time the Conservatives have won a Westminster by-election gain in Scotland since Glasgow Pollok in 1967.
The contest was shaped heavily by tactical voting, with support for Labour, Reform UK and the Scottish Liberal Democrats falling as voters rallied behind the Conservatives. The campaign increasingly came to be seen as a local referendum on the future of North Sea oil and gas.
Throughout the race, the Conservatives pressed the argument that they alone could be relied upon to back the energy sector, which is currently shedding around 1,000 jobs a month. That message appears to have resonated strongly in an area where the industry remains central to the local economy.
For First Minister John Swinney, the result represents a bruising setback in his first electoral test leading the SNP, coming after the Peter Murrell scandal resurfaced in dramatic and damaging fashion.
The First Minister said he was ‘very disappointed’ with the result.
It produced an immediate row within the party, as economy secretary Stephen Flynn, whose move to Holyrood triggered the byelection, lashed out at colleagues.
‘A tough night in Aberdeen that some will need to reflect on, quite heavily,’ he wrote on X.
Scottish Conservative Party candidate Douglas Lumsden has won Aberdeen South – stealing it from under the nose of the SNP
SNP candidate Richard Gordon Thomson is pictured during the vote count in Aberdeen
The win is a major coup for the Tories, who campaigned on a platform of protecting Scotland’s oil and gas industry
Mr Flynn has been one of the SNP’s most vocal supporters of the oil and gas sector.
Speaking after the result was declared shortly before 2am, new Tory MP Douglas Lumsden said: ‘The people of Aberdeen has spoken loud and clear.
‘We stopped the SNP and sent Labour the message that the destruction of the North Sea oil and gas industry must stop now.
‘To everyone at Aberdeen that put their trust in me, thank you.
‘I share your anger, I share your frustration, and I share your fears for the future.
‘And I promise that I will be a strong voice for this city, standing up for you, your families, and your livelihoods against short and excited policies.’
He thanked Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay and UK leader Kemi Badenoch for their support throughout a gruelling campaign.
He said: ‘A big part of this election victory belongs to Kemi.
‘She understands that we need the North Sea for our prosperity and energy security, and our commitment to my campaign and the people of Aberdeen has been nothing short of exceptional.’
‘What has been made clear here tonight is that the Labour and the SNP governments must act to end the wilful destruction of the energy industry.’
The Nationalists had entered the contest defending a majority of almost 4,000.
Bruised after losing most of their MSPs at last month’s Holyrood election, the party threw everything at Aberdeen South in a first step at recovery.
UK leader Kemi Badenoch was a repeat visitor, warning it was ‘madness’ to rule out new drilling in UK waters while relying on costly and more polluting imports instead.
The efforts paid off as Mr Lumsden defeated the SNP’s Richard Thomson by 6,050 votes.
Reform UK’s Jo Hart was third, while Labour’s Nurul Hoque Ali was fourth.
Turnout was 38.1 per cent, down from 59.9 per cent at the 2024 general election.
The Tory vote share surged from 24.4 per cent to 50 per cent, while the SNP’s fell from 32.8 per cent to 28.6, and Labour’s collapsed from 24.7 to just 5.4 per cent.
Reform barely improved from 6.9 to 8.6 per cent, the LibDems fell from 6.3 to 4.4 per cent and lost their deposit, while the Greens slipped from 3.5 to 3.4 per cent.
Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s former leader in Westminster and current Holyrood cabinet secretary, said it was a ‘tough night’ for the party
The loss is a humiliation for John Swinney (left). The by-election was his first electoral test since the Peter Murrell scandal exploded in shocking detail
Writing on X, Mr Swinney said: ‘Very disappointed with the result in Aberdeen South, the SNP vote remains strong but it is clear that tactical voting has had a real impact on the result. Congratulations to Douglas Lumsden.
‘Well done to Richard Thomson and his dedicated team for their efforts.’Mr Thomson said: ‘The Conservatives threw the kitchen sink at this. I think just the sheer amount of that we were up against made it difficult for us to get the result that we hoped for.
‘We found it quite difficult to compete against the tidal wave of resources that were thrown at this particular seat.’
The by-election was triggered by Mr Flynn, the former SNP Westminster leader, switching to Holyrood at last month’s election, forcing him to give up his Commons seat.
At the 2024 general election, he held the seat with a majority of 3,758 over Labour, with the Tories 155 votes behind.
Mr Flynn won his Holyrood seat of Aberdeen Deeside thanks to Reform UK splitting the anti-Nationalist vote – their 6,113 votes dwarfing the SNP lead of just 1,244.
The Conservatives used their painful defeat in Aberdeen Deeside to warn voters against making the same mistake in Aberdeen South and ending up with ‘buyer’s remorse’.
Mr Lumsden will now have to give up his Holyrood seat as a North East list MSP.
Aberdeenshire Councillor James Adams, who was the party’s candidate in Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the Holyrood election, will become a Tory list MSP in his place.
Mr Lumsden’s win increases the number of Scottish Tory MPs to six.
As well as the focus on oil and gas, the by-election was fought against a backdrop of scandal.
During the campaign, ex-SNP chief executive Murrell pleaded guilty to embezzling more than £400,000 from party funds between 2010 and 2012 while married to Nicola Sturgeon.
For most of the period, Ms Sturgeon was also First Minister.
The SNP held on in the other Scottish by-election of the night.
Lara Bird became the new MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry after increasing her party’s majority from 859 to 5,278.
