Pauline Hanson has received a fresh political boost, with new polling suggesting a federal election held today would be too close to call between One Nation and Labor.
The latest Roy Morgan poll put Labor ahead on a two-party preferred basis with 51 per cent support, while One Nation was close behind on 49 per cent.
On primary votes, support for Hanson’s party increased by two points to 31.5 per cent, while Labor slipped one point to 27 per cent.
The rise in support follows Hanson’s combative National Press Club address and her “Free the Liar” campaign targeting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, which has reportedly raised more than $4.7 million in under two weeks.
Primary support for the Coalition edged up 0.5 points to 17.5 per cent, while the Greens fell to 13.5 per cent.
The poll noted that the next federal election could produce a complex set of contests, with Labor, One Nation and the Coalition facing off against each other, as well as competing with the Greens, teal independents and smaller parties such as Katter’s Australian Party.
Separately, the latest Capital Brief/DemosAU poll suggests One Nation has overtaken the Coalition as the leading opposition force among voters.
Nearly 40 per cent of Australians surveyed who backed Peter Dutton’s Coalition in 2025 said they would switch their support to One Nation if an election were held now.
Pauline Hanson has been delivered a win as a new poll reveals if a federal election was held today, it would be ‘too close to call’ between One Nation and Labor
Primary support for Hanson’s party has climbed two points to 31.5 per cent, while Labor fell one point to 27 per cent
Seventeen per cent of those who voted for Labor last year would now side with Hanson, while just seven per cent would switch to the Coalition.
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However, Albanese remains Australia’s preferred prime minister with 35 per cent support, ahead of Hanson (28 per cent) and Coalition leader Angus Taylor (19 per cent).
‘On these numbers, One Nation would likely fall short of forming government, even with Coalition support, but a further improvement in support, or a further drop for Labor, could change the equation,’ DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said.
Separate polling from RedBridge Group and Accent Research showed that One Nation could win up to 59 lower house seats if a federal election were held today.
The result would leave One Nation as the official opposition, reducing the Coalition to a handful of seats and forcing Labor into minority government.
Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles was asked if Labor will need to join forces with the Greens in order to form government when he appeared on Sunrise on Tuesday morning.
‘I think what’s really clear is that when you look on the right side of politics, whether it’s the Liberals or One Nation, they’re going to need each other,’ he said.
‘That’s what’s absolutely clear from all of this.
The orange wave of support for One Nation continues to rise on the back of the party’s ‘Free the Liar’ campaign against Anthony Albanese
‘And I think the other point that’s really clear is that while we’re focused on dealing with challenges around the cost of living, reducing our tax, we’re making sure that medicine is more available, bulk billing is increasing, childcare is more affordable.
‘Both One Nation and the Liberals have opposed all of that. And so what you’ll get with Pauline Hanson or Angus Taylor, whichever of the two is parties, which are going to make it harder in terms of dealing with the cost-of-living, not easier.’
Marles stressed that the Greens were ‘completely separate’ from the Albanese government.
‘We are governing Australia in the national interest and, in doing so, are very much focused on challenges around the cost of living,’ he added.
