Republicans are arguing they have a real opening to gain congressional ground in New York this November, according to a new GOP analysis that Democrats quickly dismissed as little more than “fantasy.”
The assessment from the National Republican Congressional Committee contends that GOP gubernatorial hopeful Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, could perform strongly in suburban and upstate areas against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. Republicans say that dynamic could create added pressure for Democratic House candidates running in competitive districts across those regions.
“In New York, Republicans are in the strongest electoral position possible because while Kathy Hochul and Zohran Mamdani run the Empire State into the ground, Republicans are delivering,” NRCC spokeswoman Maureen O’Toole said.
“Taxes are down, communities are safer, and New Yorkers have President Trump and Republicans to thank for it.”
Democrats, however, point to one major factor the Republican analysis appears to downplay: Donald Trump’s weak standing in New York. A Siena College poll released last week found that just 32% of New York voters viewed Trump favorably, compared with 63% who viewed him unfavorably.
The numbers were similarly challenging for Trump in the suburbs, where several closely watched House races are expected to unfold. There, 33% of voters had a favorable view of him, while 60% viewed him unfavorably.
New York State Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs brushed aside the GOP’s confidence, saying the analysis does not reflect the political mood in the state.
“I don’t think anyone is going to believe this fantasy,” Jacobs said. “Donald Trump is the most unpopular president since Richard Nixon.”
But Blakeman won re-election as Nassau County executive last year by an impressive 11 percentage points after winning 50.3% of the vote in 2021, when he toppled Democratic incumbent Laura Curran, the NRCC analysis noted.
Republicans also swept every countywide office in Nassau on Long Island in 2025.
Within the 3rd Congressional District occupied by Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, Blakeman carried Suozzi’s hometown of Glen Cove.
In House District 4, occupied by first-term Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, Republicans also recorded a clean sweep of the Long Beach City Council elections last year, making the town council dominated entirely by the GOP for the first time in 54 years.
The House GOP analysis shows that President Trump carried the 3rd House District by 4.3 percentage points over Democratic presidential hopeful Kamala Harris in 2024 and lost District 4 by only a half-percentage point.
In a surprise, Suozzi only squeaked by GOP former Assemblyman Michael LiPetri by 3 percentage points in the House District 3, which includes parts of Queens as well as Long Island, two years ago.
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LiPetri is the GOP nominee in what could be a competitive rematch this year.
But the Cook Political Political Report, an independent grader of elections, said House District 3 “leans Democrat” this year.
It also said House District 4 “leans Democrat.”
Gillen faces off against Hempstead Receiver of Taxes Jeanine Driscoll, whom the Nassau GOP nominated after Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, currently the inspector general in the US Labor Department, declined to run.
Despite winning statewide by 6.4 percentage points in 2022, Hochul lost to former Long Island Rep Lee Zeldin by 8.5 points in District 3 and by 5.8 points in District 4, the GOP analysis noted.
In the Hudson Valley’s 17th District, two-term Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler faces a tough re-election bid against Army veteran Cait Conley, who won her Democratic primary election last week.
Lawler won re-election by 6 percentage points in 2024 after toppling ex-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in a squeaker in 2022.
Hochul lost District 17 to Zeldin by 3.2 percentage points in 2022.
In the upstate 19th Congressional District, Republican state Sen. Peter Oberacker is challenging first-term Democratic incumbent Josh Riley.
Oberacker’s state Senate district makes up 37% of NY-19, which the GOP claims gives him a shot to win the seat, according to the NRCC analysis.
While favored to win a second full, four-year term as governor after replacing Andrew Cuomo, Hochul is not popular. In the Siena poll, 43% view her favorably and 44% unfavorably.
But Hochul leads Blakeman 52% to 32% in the horse race for governor.
Jacobs, who also serves as the Nassau County Democratic leader, said the GOP analysis is flawed for ignoring current conditions on the ground as opposed to focusing on prior years’s results.
“You can’t fight last year’s war. You fight the next one. Elections aren’t about years past but about the future in the now,” he said.
