Democrats’ chances of holding Maine’s U.S. Senate seat have climbed sharply over the past day, following a fresh wave of sexual misconduct allegations involving the party’s current nominee, Graham Platner.
Platner on Monday denied an allegation from his former girlfriend, Jenny Racicot, who accused him of nonconsensual sex. Still, he acknowledged he was weighing whether to end his campaign after Politico reported on the claim.
The uncertainty surrounding Platner’s future appeared to shift the political market on Tuesday, with odds of a Democratic win over Republican incumbent Susan Collins rising as speculation grew that he could step aside.
As recently as July 2, traders on Kalshi gave Collins a narrow edge in the matchup, with 50 percent backing the Republican senator and 49.7 percent favoring the Democratic challenger.
That picture has since changed. Democrats are now being given a 59 percent chance of defeating Collins, according to Kalshi’s betting odds.
Platner and the Maine Democratic Party are also facing a tight calendar. If he decides to withdraw from the race, he must do so by July 13, and party officials would then have until July 27 to choose a replacement.
Those close to Platner have suggested he would only exit if a successor emerged who reflects his progressive priorities and broader political vision.
Behind the scenes, Maine Democrats are increasingly weighing possible alternatives, with much of the conversation centered on figures who came up short in 2026 races.
Democratic US Senate nominee Graham Platner speaks at his Primary Election event on June 9, 2026 in Blue Hill, Maine
One of Platner’s ex partners, Jenny Racicot, spoke to CNN about her allegations
On July 2nd, Kalshi traders actually gave incumbent Susan Collins the advantage in the match-up against Platner, with 50.03 percent backing her and 49.7 percent favoring the challenger
As of 7am on Tuesday, July 7th, Democrats have a 59.2 percent chance of beating Collins, per Kalshi’s betting odds
Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, epidemiologist Nirav Shah, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, and former congressional candidate Jordan Wood are among those being floated by party insiders to Punchbowl News.
Jackson publicly backed allegations against Platner and called on him to exit the race, saying, ‘There is no place in our politics for sexual violence. Not in our party, not in any party. Graham Platner must withdraw from this race today.’
However, rumors have swirled about ‘troubling information’ regarding Jackson’s behavior.
Retiring Congressman Jared Golden is a preferred option for many Democrats, but the chances of him being willing to stay in DC are slim.
Governor Janet Mills, meanwhile, has both name ID and the ability to fundraise, but lost badly to Platner in the primary for the US Senate seat after suspending her campaign but remaining on the ballot, so she is considered highly unlikely to run.
Platner was accused by ex-girlfriend Racicot of forcing himself on her after barging into her home ‘blackout drunk.’
Racicot, 41, told Politico she had an on-and-off relationship with Platner for more than two years before the night when he showed up to her rural Maine home uninvited in 2021.
She said that they exchanged messages that night and told him not to come over, but later that evening, she heard him letting himself into her unlocked house.
Election signs for Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner stand outside a home in rural Maine near the town of Dedham on June 3, 2026
Graham Platner and his wife Amy Gertner
Platner came upstairs to where she was sitting on the couch and ignored her protests and started ‘grabbing my pelvis and being really forceful of me.’
‘I had been telling him these words, like: “No, don’t,”‘ she told Politico. ‘And, the look on his face and realizing what was happening, I just realized that, like, I am in a situation where there’s no consent here.’
Racicot claimed that she tried to get away from Platner by going to her bedroom, but he followed her inside and had sex with her against her will. She said he ejaculated inside her despite her asking him not to because she was not on birth control.
Platner had previously been accused of improper behavior by two other former partners.
The married Iraq war veteran faced an immediate wave of left wing backlash, including from top Democratic lawmakers who pulled their support.
Representative Ro Khanna of California posted on X: ‘I’ve been very clear that sexual assault or violence against women is a red line. These allegations are very serious and credible. Graham Platner should drop out from the race. I am withdrawing my endorsement.’
Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona posted: ‘The allegations against Graham Platner are troubling and deeply serious. I am rescinding my endorsement.’
Left-wing streamer Hasan Piker, who is highly influential among Gen Z, said during his live stream: ‘That is curtains. That is the trifecta. Okay, that is the trifecta of a reliable allegation. It’s holy shit … I believe this, this accusation. I believe this allegation.’
The national Democratic campaign arm also noted on Monday that if Platner remained on the ballot, they would not invest money into the race.
Collins, the only Republican in the race, holds an independent streak that makes her both loved and feared.
She also represents an endangered species: a Republican who represents a state traditionally carried by the Democratic presidential nominee.
