WASHINGTON — Democrats still hold a narrow advantage in the battle for Congress, but Republicans appear to be closing the gap as the midterm elections move closer, according to a new poll.
A Washington Post-Ipsos survey found that 48% of registered voters say they would prefer Democrats to control the House of Representatives, while 45% favor Republican control.
The numbers mark a modest shift from May, when an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll showed Democrats ahead 49% to 44% among registered voters.
The tighter margin stands in contrast to the political climate before the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats entered the final stretch of a blue-wave year with an advantage of about 10 points over Republicans, according to ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos polling.
“Everyone assuming a landslide in November should just probably rethink that,” Neera Tanden, president and CEO of the Center for American Progress, wrote on X in response to the latest survey.
History also weighs heavily on the party occupying the White House. Since 1938, the president’s party has lost House seats in nearly every midterm election, with only two exceptions.
This time, however, Democrats are navigating more than the usual midterm headwinds. The party has been pulled into an internal struggle between its establishment wing and far-left challengers, while also confronting questions about its political identity after its 2024 defeat to President Trump.
Republicans, meanwhile, are entering the midterm fight with better-funded national campaign operations.
All of this, paired with the poll showing the GOP slightly gaining ground, has given Republicans hope that they are still in the game and might have an opportunity to turn things around heading into the midterms — though they are still widely seen as likely to lose the House.
Perhaps more realistically, the poll indicates that Democrats could have a smaller midterm victory in House races than previously expected.
Overall, Democrats have a 4.7 percentage point lead over Democrats in the generic congressional race, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate.
Crucially, the ABC-Washington Post-Ipsos poll found that registered voters feel that Republicans better represent them on important issues, 41% to 40%, and that the GOP will do a better job on the economy, 39% to 35%.
But, in a bright spot for Democrats, it found a massive, 10-point lead with voters who are certain to turn out to the polls in November, a lead that’s on par with the Dems’ edge on enthusiasm in 2018.
Republicans have long been nervous about turnout in November, given that Trump isn’t on the ballot and that the party is divided internally over key issues such as the war in Iran.
Trump is also underwater in voters’ top issues for the midterms, including the economy, the war in Iran, and immigration.
The poll sampled 2,092 registered voters between July 8-13 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
