SNP ministers did not seek advice from their own independent tax experts before increasing Scotland’s top income tax rate to a level now believed to have reduced revenues by £22million, it was claimed yesterday.
Dan Neidle, who sits on the Scottish Government’s Tax Advisory Group, said the decision appeared to reflect a mix of poor judgment, cynicism, recklessness and virtue-signalling.
The move to raise the top rate of Scottish income tax to 48p, presented as a way to help fund public services, is now thought to have left taxpayers worse off after many high earners changed their financial arrangements to avoid the higher charge.
Speaking to the Holyrood Sources podcast, Mr Neidle said: ‘We were never asked,’ adding that ministers may have known privately that the policy could not be properly justified.
Craig Hoy, the Scottish Conservative finance spokesman, said the claims were deeply damaging, arguing that they “raise serious questions about the SNP’s entire tax strategy”.
He said it was “astonishing” that ministers had failed to consult one of their tax advisers before making Scots pay more, describing the omission as “an act of utter negligence”.
Mr Hoy added that the tax rise had now been shown to bring in less money for the public finances, which he said were already under severe pressure after “two decades of nationalist mismanagement”.
He said the SNP had ignored repeated warnings that higher taxes would not deliver economic growth, and had pressed ahead with the policy regardless.
SNP ministers raised the top rate of Scottish income tax to 48p to fund public services
‘John Swinney and his ministers should come clean on why they thought this was a good idea and why they failed to ask for advice from economic experts.’
The SNP’s Holyrood manifesto in 2021 promised to ‘freeze income tax rates and bands’.
But in December 2023 finance secretary Shona Robison announced a Scotland-only 45p ‘advanced’ rate on earnings over £75,000 from 2024/25 and hiked the top rate from 47 to 48p on income over £125,140, compared to a top rate of 45p in the rest of the UK.
Setting out her budget plans, she told MSPs: ‘This Government believes those with the broadest shoulders should pay a higher rate of tax. I mean the top-earning taxpayers.’
It led to the first minister Humza Yousaf being dubbed ‘high tax Humza’.
Holyrood’s budget watchdog warned at the time the extra taxes would see the top 5 per cent of earners affected make ‘behavioural changes’ to reduce bills.
The Scottish Fiscal Commission said the 48p rate should raise £53million in theory but just £8million in practice because of avoidance.
Mr Neidle this week calculated the rise may have cost Scotland £15million to £30million in its first year, with a mid-range estimate of £22million.
The founder of Tax Policy Associates, he was one of ten outside experts on the SNP’s Tax Advisory Group led by Ms Robison.
Finance secretary Shona Robison announced a Scotland-only 45p ‘advanced’ rate on earnings over £75,000
It was set up in July 2023 to provide advice on ‘tax policy and strategy’ and scrapped earlier this year.
Speaking to Holyrood sources podcast, he revealed ministers failed to consult the group on the change.
He said: ‘At what point do you think we were asked to advise on increasing the tax rate to 48 pence? We were never asked. And of course not.
‘Because if you’d ask, frankly, any rational human being and said: “We’re about to do this thing and we’re not sure if it makes or loses money, and we still don’t have good enough data from the last time we did a slightly lesser thing to know if that made or loses money”, who’s going to say, “Do this thing”?’
He suggested a variety of unflattering reasons why the SNP might have imposed a 48p rate despite the risk of people going out their way to avoid it.
He said: ‘Theory one, they’re stupid. They didn’t understand it. They didn’t realise. Possible.
‘Theory number two, they’re gamblers. They saw there was a risk, but decided to take it in knowledge of that risk.
‘Theory number three, they’re incredibly cynical politicians who couldn’t care about whether it brings in or loses money, but it’ll do as a nice piece of political positioning.
Tax Advisory Group member Dan Neidle suggested stupidity, cynicism, recklessness and virtue-signalling were to blame for the SNP’s blunder
‘Theory number four, my personal favourite, they’re infected by a disease that you often see on the left of politics, not just in the UK but everywhere, which is, “I like this thing, this thing seems progressive and good, we should do this thing”.
‘And the question of whether it’s actually going to have the outcome that you want is either not something that even crosses your mind or it’s heretical to ask that question.’
Scottish Labour finance spokesman Michael Marra said: ‘The SNP’s approach to our public finances has been utterly chaotic for years.
‘This tax rise was always a performance gimmick and was projected at best to raise tiny amounts of money. Instead ordinary taxpayers have been hit yet again.’
Scottish Liberal Democrat finance spokesman Liam McArthur said: ‘It’s pretty damning to hear the Scottish Government didn’t consult with its own advisers on these changes.
‘Taxpayers deserve value for money and confidence that their taxes are being spent wisely. Right now, that trust has been lost.’
A Scottish Government spokesman said: ‘Any decisions on taxation are for the Cabinet of the day and the intention to increase the top rate of tax by 1 per cent was announced in parliament by the then Finance Secretary in 2023.
‘Tax rates are commercially and economically sensitive and, as such, it is common practice to inform only the Scottish Fiscal Commission and HMRC of income tax decisions before parliament is updated.’
