Victorian Labor revealed more than it intended on Tuesday, as a party long accustomed to projecting control suddenly looked rattled, exposing the hard-edged political instincts sitting just beneath its polished administrative image.
That sense of alarm was most visible around former premier Jacinta Allan and the increasingly narrow circle of supporters still standing with her.
Inside Mail has been told Allan made the decision to step down only two or three hours before the 10am caucus meeting. Before that, sources say she had spent more than 24 hours locked in what one described as a “delusional” bunker mentality, insisting there was still a way through even as the numbers against her had become impossible to ignore.
The gap between Allan’s inner circle and the political reality unfolding around them was so stark that one party figure likened the mood to the tense, enclosed atmosphere of the World War II film Downfall.
Under Victorian Labor leadership rules, a challenge cannot proceed unless at least half of the parliamentary caucus signs a petition demanding a spill.
That bar is easier to clear than in federal Labor, where 60 per cent of caucus members must back a move before a leadership contest can be held.
If a spill is called, what happens next depends on the field. When only one candidate nominates for the top job, no vote is required and that person is confirmed as leader unopposed.
If multiple candidates contest the position, the party moves to a formal leadership election involving both Labor MPs and rank-and-file members.
Allan (pictured) was described as entering a ‘bunker’ mentality during her dying leadership
Allan arrives to speak to media during a press conference at Parliament House
The ballot is weighted between the parliamentary caucus and the party membership, with the result determined by combining the two votes.
Allan was convinced that even if she didn’t have the total majority of the caucus vote, she would easily carry a membership vote by enough to secure her leadership, something she admitted during her resignation speech.
Allan was so confident of victory that she wrote to State Secretary Steve Staikos
‘I also wish to formally notify you of my intention to be a candidate for the leadership of the State Parliamentary Labor Party, in the event that an election is required.’
Yet Allan’s downfall did not come at the hands of her traditional factional rivals. Instead, it was her own allies who delivered the fatal blow.
While Victorian Labor is often viewed through the prism of its Left and Right factions, the reality is a far more fragmented network of competing power blocs.
Allan, who emerged from the Daniel Andrews Hard Left, watched her position unravel as key figures within the Industrial Left withdrew their backing, depriving her of the numbers needed to survive and sealing the fate of her premiership.
This act would not go unpunished.
Sonya Kilkenny (pictured), a staunch Allan loyalist, ran to scare her opponents into backing her faction’s preferred choice for deputy leader
Allan acknowledged the reality of her situation in her resignation speech, publicly declaring she would back Ben Carroll if he was successful in his tilt, at that time the only declared leadership candidate.
But the events that followed reinforced the view held by many of her internal critics that she remained, at heart, a factional operator unwilling to surrender influence without a fight.
Enter Attorney-General Sonya Kilkenny, Allan’s staunchest ally.
In a move that blindsided much of the Labor caucus, Kilkenny nominated for the leadership, securing the 14 signatures required to force a ballot, including Allan’s own endorsement.
Until that point, Carroll’s backers had expected a straightforward transition, with 50 MPs lining up behind him and no serious challenger emerging.
Kilkenny’s intervention detonated those expectations.
MPs who had anticipated a quick and uncontested handover suddenly found themselves facing a potentially divisive leadership contest.
Jacinta Allan (left) felt deeply betrayed by Williams (right), one of her Left faction colleagues
The surprise extended beyond Spring Street, with journalists scrambling to make sense of the rapidly shifting numbers.
The development proved so unexpected that Herald Sun political editor James Campbell laughed in disbelief during a live television broadcast when reports of Kilkenny’s nomination emerged.
Within minutes, News24’s headline on the screen simply said ‘Labor Chaos’.
Behind the scenes, Kilkenny’s candidacy formed part of a last-ditch effort by the Hard Left to protect its influence in the post-Allan era.
The faction pushed for Gabrielle Williams, also from the left, to step aside in favour of Steve Dimopoulos for the deputy leadership, hoping to lock in one of the party’s most powerful positions.
According to multiple sources, Kilkenny’s camp made clear it was prepared to force a ballot unless Dimopoulos secured the deputy’s role.
Dimopoulos remains a divisive figure within Victorian Labor.
In 2022, he enraged former allies on the Right when he defected to Labor’s Left faction, helping Daniel Andrews consolidate a majority in the party room and reshaping the balance of power within the government.
Had Kilkenny followed through, Victorian Labor would have been plunged into a six-week leadership contest, leaving the eventual winner with barely 10 weeks to sell themselves to voters before November’s state election.
Anthony Albanese’s office was seemingly blindsided by Kilkenny’s decision to nominate
Kilkenny pressed her case until the eleventh hour.
The situation became so chaotic that caucus briefly settled on Gabrielle Williams as an interim leader, a role she held for little more than 10 minutes before Kilkenny finally withdrew and cleared the path for a Carroll victory.
By that stage, senior figures across the labour movement were scrambling to restore order.
Inside Mail understands Trades Hall and party officials, increasingly alarmed by the spectacle unfolding behind closed doors, exerted intense pressure on Kilkenny and her supporters to bring the standoff to an end.
Whether Prime Minister Anthony Albanese or Labor national secretary Paul Erickson intervened directly remains unclear.
Albanese appeared unaware of the chaos engulfing Victorian Labor, giving a press conference in WA during the standoff that suggested his office believed that the process would be swift and simple.
At least one well-connected insider believes the PM was blindsided by the chaos.
Significantly, the impasse inside the caucus room broke after that press conference concluded, with the factional warfare subsiding roughly 20 minutes later. A reasonable conclusion is that Albanese or an envoy intervened.
What is clear, however, is that neither camp viewed the unfolding drama favourably as the party sought to avoid a damaging and protracted public fight.
Carroll (pictured) did the same thing Kilkenny threatened when he became Deputy in 2023
In a Shakespearean twist, the move mirrored one made by Carroll himself when he contested the party leadership in 2023 after Daniel Andrews’ resignation.
After later withdrawing from the race, Carroll was appointed Deputy Leader.
Members of Allan’s faction have not forgotten the episode, which at the time was described by one insider as ‘an act of absolute terrorism’.
While Kilkenny’s gambit ultimately failed, it peeled back the curtain on the factional warfare that has largely disappeared from public view during the Albanese era.
Since taking the federal leadership, Albanese has worked to present Labor as a disciplined and stable governing party, a deliberate contrast to the leadership turmoil that defined the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years.
