Forecasters are keeping close watch on two developing areas in the Atlantic basin, with both systems tracking in the general direction of the US.
The nearer concern is Invest AL97, which could briefly strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm before it moves ashore.
As of Monday morning, the disturbance was located more than 98 miles south of Louisiana and was drifting slowly toward the west-northwest.
Satellite imagery indicated the system’s circulation was still disorganized, though it was generating winds of about 29 to 35 mph and environmental conditions remained supportive of additional development.
AL97 is forecast to move into Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana late tonight or early Tuesday morning.
Tropical storm watches or warnings may be posted later Monday, and heavy rainfall is expected along portions of both coastlines whether or not the disturbance becomes a named system.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is also monitoring the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly as they move quickly west across the Caribbean in the direction of Florida.
Dolly is not expected to regenerate in the next day or two, but its lingering moisture could raise rain chances across Florida later this week.
Hurricane trackers are monitoring two disturbances in the Atlantic basin as both move toward the US
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system in the Gulf later this morning.
Forecasters said it has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.
The NHC gives it a 70 percent chance of development over both the next two and seven days. The next named storm would be Edouard.
Chicago & Midwest Storm Chasers said on X: ’97L continues to look increasingly organized this morning, with deep convection exploding around the circulation and persistent lightning near the center.
‘The current satellite presentation appears more organized than some hurricane-model guidance has been depicting.’
Farther east, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly are producing heavy showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico across the Virgin Islands and northern Leeward Islands.
The system remains a strong tropical wave but does not have a fully formed center of circulation.
That makes redevelopment unlikely over the next day or two as it races west to west-northwest at about 25 mph.
The more immediate threat, Invest AL97 (red), is likely to become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the coast
Above is a model showing potential paths for Invest A97, which could become a named storm on Monday or Tuesday
Conditions could become slightly more favorable by midweek as Dolly approaches the Gulf.
However, its chances of reforming remain near zero through 48 hours and just 20 percent through the next seven days.
Even if Dolly never redevelops, Florida could still feel its effects.
The wave could drag more tropical moisture across the state and combine with favorable conditions higher in the atmosphere, bringing more widespread rain and stronger afternoon storms later this week.
It could also keep the rip current risk elevated at area beaches, depending on changes in air pressure and whether long-period swells reach the coast.
East Central Florida is facing a hot, muggy and stormy week, with forecasters warning of heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and possible localized flooding.
Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop from late Monday morning through the evening, according to Indian River County Weather.
Rain chances will range from 50 to 60 percent across the region, including a 50 percent chance around Vero Beach.
The strongest storms could unleash wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, frequent lightning and torrential rain. Slow-moving storms could dump large amounts of water over isolated areas, triggering flash flooding.
Temperatures will reach 89 to 92 degrees, but high humidity could make it feel like 100 to more than 105 degrees.
Conditions could deteriorate further Wednesday and Thursday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly pass near Florida and pull more moisture into the state.
Parts of the region face a marginal, Level 1 out of 4, risk of excessive rainfall Thursday.
Conditions offshore should remain relatively manageable, with east-to-southeast winds of five to 10 knots, about six to 12mph, and waves of two to three feet. However, thunderstorms will remain a daily threat for boaters.
Rain chances could ease slightly over the weekend but are expected to remain above normal as temperatures climb into the low to mid-90s.
