Maine Defies ‘Blue Tsunami’ Narrative as Democrats Face New Political Headwinds

By the time James Cox was first allowed to cast a ballot, Susan Collins had already represented him in the Senate for a decade.

Now 38, Cox has voted for the longtime Republican several times, persuaded by her promise to stand up for Maine and its residents.

He may do so once again.

‘Susan Collins is more of a familiar face to me,’ Cox told Our News Outlet as he stood in a flannel jacket on a windswept street in Bangor, Maine’s third-largest city, with a population of just 32,000.

Still, he has heard about a ‘new’ name in the race.

‘It was brought to my attention that Troy Jackson has actually been involved in the Senate and politics for more than 20 years,’ he said.

But does he know enough about Jackson to trust him with his vote? Probably not.

With only a week remaining before the midterms, Cox’s comments will be deeply unwelcome news for the Jackson campaign.

Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins is seeking a sixth consecutive term against Democrat Troy Jackson, a former logger and longtime Maine lawmaker

James Cox, 38, of Bangor, told Our News Outlet that he supports Collins because she is a familiar figure and he knows little about Jackson. His main concern, however, was ending the US war in Iran

Our News Outlet spoke with six Bangor residents in the week before Election Day. Voters in the area consistently leaned toward Collins over Jackson, citing their unfamiliarity with the Democrat, whose campaign began late after the previous nominee withdrew

Jackson, a 58-year-old Democrat who moved from logging into politics, is trying to unseat 73-year-old Collins, the longest-serving Republican woman in Senate history.

As she seeks a sixth term, Collins is counting on most Mainers feeling the same way Cox does: that she is a dependable and familiar choice.

Jackson’s campaign, meanwhile, is wrestling with concerns that his late entry into the contest put him at a serious disadvantage. Running against such a well-known politician, he needed every possible day to introduce himself to voters.

‘Jackson served six years as president of the state Senate, but he is not particularly well known to many Maine voters, especially in the southern part of the state,’ said Ronald Schmidt, a professor of political science at the University of Southern Maine. ‘He needed every opportunity to introduce himself before Senator Collins and the PACs supporting her began doing that introduction for him.’

Jackson was not confirmed as the Democratic nominee until July 25, after the previous candidate, Graham Platner, withdrew amid allegations of sexual misconduct.

Platner had announced his campaign in August 2025, meaning Jackson effectively entered the race with a year’s worth of campaign time lost.

‘There was a delay in organizing and in finding the right tone,’ Schmidt said. ‘That said, I think he still has a reasonable chance of winning, partly because of voter exhaustion with the Trump administration and Republicans in Washington.

‘But when it comes to the strengths of his campaign, that slow start unquestionably hurt.’

Graham Platner, 42, was the Democratic candidate in Maine’s Senate race until July. He withdrew after facing rape and sexual misconduct allegations, all of which he has denied

Platner came under intense scrutiny after reports revealed an active profile on the anonymous messaging app Kik, along with a scandal involving extramarital and sexually explicit texts. His Kik profile picture, viewed by Our News Outlet, showed him shirtless and wearing only a towel

After Platner withdrew, Democratic candidate Troy Jackson, 58, a former logger and president of the Maine state Senate, launched his campaign in late July

For some Maine Democrats, the situation feels painfully familiar.

Like Kamala Harris’s supporters in 2024, Jackson’s backers believe he has not been given enough time to establish himself with voters.

And with the race too close to call, Jackson needed every advantage available to him.

There is no question that he has deep Maine roots.

Born in the far northern part of the state to a 16-year-old teacher and her logger husband, Jackson’s parents hoped he would avoid following his father, grandfather and great-grandfather into the woods.

But at 11, in 1981, he accompanied his father to support striking loggers. He watched as they were forced either to return to work or be fired and replaced by Canadian workers. The experience left a lasting impression, and earlier this year he recalled the helplessness his father, Joe, had felt.

‘He couldn’t say anything,’ Jackson said while speaking with a reporter before meeting electricians at their union hall in Lewiston. ‘You lose your sense of pride, your sense of dignity.’

By 19, Jackson was working full time as a logger, rising at 2am for 18-hour days in the forest while organizing protests over working conditions. When those efforts failed, he turned to politics—initially as a Republican, aware of the Bush family’s ties to Maine, before switching parties and running as a Democrat in 2004.

A statue of legendary North American lumberjack Paul Bunyan stands in Bangor, an area with deep connections to the logging industry

Jackson campaigned alongside Senator Elizabeth Warren in Waterville, Maine, on Monday. He spoke about growing corporate power undermining working-class families and opposed ‘for-profit’ higher education, two progressive positions

In a state that prides itself on fierce independence—one-third of voters decline to identify with either major party—Jackson’s change of allegiance has not appeared to trouble voters.

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Independence is also precisely what his Republican opponent is eager to emphasize.

With Donald Trump’s approval ratings at record lows, Collins has worked hard to distance herself from the party leader. She voted to impeach him in January 2021 and opposed several of his Cabinet nominees during both terms, notably Pete Hegseth and Kash Patel. She did, however, vote to confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

According to CQ Roll Call analysis, Collins supported Trump’s policies 95 percent of the time in 2025. She voted to advance the Big Beautiful Bill in the Senate before rejecting it in the final vote—a move critics called a typically performative Collins maneuver. Her campaign says the decision demonstrates her independence.

Is that argument resonating?

‘That’s a great question, and in many ways the answer may be the biggest factor determining the outcome,’ said Professor Mark Brewer, chair of the University of Maine’s political science department.

‘Collins has made a strong case, as she always does, for the benefits she brings to the state.

‘Jackson has made a fairly persuasive case that Collins has changed over time and become less bipartisan and less moderate.’

In coastal Bar Harbor, many residents expressed greater support for Jackson. Voters interviewed by Our News Outlet in coastal communities showed more interest in Democrats than Republicans

‘On the question of whether she is Trump’s lackey, as Jackson argues, or an independent voice who supports the president when it benefits Maine and opposes him when it does not, I am not sure which side has been more credible. But the answer could go a long way toward determining who wins.’

Collins agreed to an unusual four debates with Jackson, hoping to reinforce her independent image and highlight her record of using her influential position on the Senate Appropriations Committee to deliver for constituents.

But during an October 6 debate, she handed Jackson what may have become the campaign’s most memorable slogan.

‘I have voted strongly against tariffs on Canada, but I have also worked behind the scenes,’ Collins said. ‘Troy mocked that, but I successfully got concrete pulp and road salt removed from the tariff list. If you ask towns in northern and eastern Maine, they get all of their road salt from Canada.’

Jackson replied: ‘We can’t eat road salt.’

His supporters have since appeared in T-shirts bearing the phrase.

So is Graham Platner’s absence still hanging over Jackson’s campaign? Or is the election really a referendum on Collins’s five terms in office—and on Trump’s two?

Mike Hurley has lived in central Maine’s Waldo County, just a short distance from Platner’s hometown of Blue Hill, for more than 50 years.

A voter fills out a ballot during early midterm voting at Bangor Town Hall in Maine on October 16, 2026

He told Our News Outlet that Platner’s forced withdrawal had been ‘painful,’ but said he was still supporting the Democrats.

‘Susan Collins is on Team Trump,’ he said, adding that he disagreed with the administration on ‘a plethora of issues.’

Maine shares a 600-mile border with Canada and has been hit hard by tariffs; only Alaska and Michigan have longer land borders with the northern neighbor.

The state also depends heavily on heating oil for homes, while the war in Iran has driven prices sharply higher. At this time last year, the average Mainer paid $907 to fill a tank for the winter. Today, the cost is $1,660.

‘The tariffs and the war with Iran are huge issues for me,’ Hurley said. ‘And Trump’s decision to turn on Ukraine is a terrible, terrible thing—and I don’t hear Susan Collins saying anything about it. The country is heading in the wrong direction, and I hope this election turns it around.’

Mike Hurley has lived in central Maine’s Waldo County, near Platner’s hometown of Blue Hill, for more than 50 years. He is backing Jackson and said Platner’s withdrawal was a ‘painful’ process

Steve, a 40-year-old chef who has lived in the picturesque Bar Harbor area for a decade, is also voting for Jackson. But he remains furious about the missteps that led to Platner’s departure.

‘The Democrats are always trying to do the right thing, but they keep shooting themselves in the foot,’ said Steve, dressed in his black chef’s whites before work.

He said the ‘clown show’ surrounding the Trump administration and the Republican Party had left him dismayed, adding: ‘These guys shouldn’t be hard to beat.’

The contest is widely regarded as the toughest of Collins’s 30-year political career and offers Democrats their strongest opportunity in a generation to finally turn all of New England blue.

Collins is the last Republican senator in the region. The other 11 are Democrats, with the exceptions of Vermont independent Bernie Sanders and Maine independent Angus King.

Even so, Collins has repeatedly shown remarkable political resilience.

‘I would never predict that Susan Collins is going to lose this race, because the Collins brand is so deeply established in people’s minds,’ said Dr. Brian Duff, an associate professor of political science at the University of New England in Maine.

‘In Maine, Collins has built a brand as a moderate and pragmatic politician who works hard to bring government contracts and other benefits to Mainers. She has spent a very long time developing that reputation.

‘But this president is the least popular any president has been heading into a midterm in nearly a century. Even someone like Susan Collins faces an extraordinarily difficult environment in which to run.’