Tyler Robinson Faces Crucial Hearing on Death Penalty and Plea in Charlie Kirk Case

PROVO, Utah — Tyler Robinson, the man accused of assassinating Charlie Kirk, is due back in a Utah courtroom Tuesday for a pivotal hearing that could move the high-profile case toward trial or significantly alter its course. Judge Tony Graf Jr. is expected to consider whether prosecutors have presented enough probable cause to sustain an aggravated murder charge — the count that leaves the death penalty as a possible punishment — and Robinson may be asked to enter a plea nearly a year after Kirk was killed.

Robinson, 23, of Washington, Utah, is charged with firing one shot that killed Kirk, a 31-year-old father of two, during a Turning Point USA event at Utah Valley University in Orem on Sept. 10, 2025.

Defense attorneys have argued that prosecutors have not met the threshold needed to proceed with aggravated murder, a charge that can carry capital punishment. But legal experts told News Outlet they do not expect Judge Graf to remove the death penalty possibility at this point in the proceedings.

“We’re at a preliminary hearing stage, so we’re at a very low burden,” said Skye Lazaro, a Salt Lake City defense attorney who is not involved in the case. “It’s probable cause, and everything is taken in a light most favorable to the state.”

The court held a weeklong hearing in early July, after which both prosecutors and the defense were given several weeks to submit written arguments ahead of Tuesday’s anticipated ruling from Judge Graf.

Lazaro said she expects the case to be bound over for trial in full, including the lone aggravating factor that could make the aggravated murder charge eligible for the death penalty: prosecutors’ claim that Robinson placed others at serious risk of death by allegedly shooting Kirk in a crowded area.

Greg Rogers, a former FBI agent and SWAT sniper who now teaches at Utah Valley University, said the alleged danger posed to the surrounding crowd is likely enough to keep that aggravating factor in place at this stage of the case.

“Shooting into a crowd is always dangerous because you don’t know if someone moves, someone walks behind him,” Rogers told News Outlet. “There are all sorts of things that could happen in the very instant you pull that trigger.”

Rogers said even highly trained law-enforcement snipers would consider such a shot dangerous.

“When you have a rank amateur that is shooting, it’s clearly, clearly very dangerous,” he said.

Potential plea:

Separately, a court spokeswoman said last week that Graf may or may not hold an arraignment after deciding whether there’s enough probable cause to bind the case over for trial.

If he does, it would be the first time that Robinson is asked to enter a plea.

“I would expect that they would enter not guilty pleas and move forward,” Lazaro said.

Lazaro said a different plea would likely require an agreement taking the death penalty off the table.

“I think the state has been so assertive on their position about the death penalty in this case that I don’t see them doing that right now,” Lazaro said.

To attack the aggravator, Robinson’s defense argued that only a single shot was fired, from an elevated position. It traveled over the crowd, rather than through it, and it only struck Kirk.

Prosecutors countered that Robinson was a bad shot, one who “seldom hit the bullseye and sometimes misses the target completely” when practicing shooting with the suspected murder weapon.

Other evidence against Robinson includes the suspected murder weapon, a .30-06 Mauser rifle that prosecutors have said belonged to his grandfather and had his DNA on it. Robinson allegedly confessed to multiple people, including his roommate and lover, Lance Twiggs, according to court documents.

“This is likely as straightforward a bindover decision as this Court will ever see,” prosecutors wrote. “After admitting to several friends, including his roommate and romantic partner, that he assassinated Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University on September 10, 2025, in front of approximately 3,000 eyewitnesses, Defendant surrendered to law enforcement for that crime.”

Prosecutors also presented surveillance video, ballistic evidence, an alleged handwritten confession and witness statements.

In one message to Twiggs, Robinson allegedly wrote that, “I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk, and I took it.”

A source close to the Kirk family said last week that Kirk’s widow Erika, and his parents, Rob and Kathy, all plan to attend the Sept. 1 hearing together as they did during the July hearing.

But even if the case moves forward, Lazaro said the pretrial sparring won’t end any time soon.

“I do think we’re going to see a lot more litigation come down the road in terms of 1102 and expert-witness designations, forensic testimony on the ballistics and things like that,” Lazaro said.