Germany Votes as Europe Braces for Another AfD Surge

Embattled German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has called a crisis meeting as voters head to the polls in two state elections where gains by the country’s main hard-Right party could put his leadership under renewed pressure.

The 70-year-old chancellor has summoned senior figures from his centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to review the initial results from regional elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

Mr Merz, who has been in office for 16 months, has also cleared his schedule for the days ahead and abandoned plans to attend the UN General Assembly as he prepares for possible political fallout from the votes.

The pro-Trump, Moscow-friendly Alternative for Germany (AfD) delivered a shock defeat to the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks ago. The result has fuelled speculation that support for Mr Merz within his own party may be weakening.

The election setback came as the chancellor’s approval ratings plunged and his centre-left coalition partner, the SPD, resisted or complicated efforts to deliver promised economic and welfare reforms.

Opinion polls indicate that the AfD is likely to make further gains on Sunday. However, it is not expected to come close to taking power in either state, unlike in Saxony-Anhalt, where it fell only a few seats short of an outright majority.

Polling stations opened at 8am local time, or 7am BST, with voting scheduled to close at 6pm.

Mr Merz received a measure of support from CDU powerbrokers on Wednesday. Eight state premiers issued a joint statement saying Germany needed “stability now more than ever” rather than “discussions about personnel”.

The state premiers stopped short, however, of offering Mr Merz a personal endorsement.

The CDU is facing distinct challenges in each of Sunday’s elections.

In the northeastern coastal state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Mr Merz’s party is largely a bystander in the main contest between the SPD, led by popular state premier Manuela Schwesig, and the AfD.

The AfD was polling at 36 per cent, just behind the SPD on 37 per cent, according to public broadcaster ZDF. The CDU, meanwhile, stood at only 6 per cent—dangerously close to the five-per-cent threshold required to remain in the state parliament.

A CDU result below that threshold would be unprecedented and could place enormous additional pressure on Mr Merz.

In Berlin, the ruling CDU is locked in a tight race with the far-left Die Linke, which has gained support among younger voters by promising sweeping measures to tackle the city’s severe housing crisis.

A defeat in the capital would be another serious blow for Mr Merz, particularly if the CDU lost to Die Linke, a party that seeks to rein in corporate influence and takes a position viewed as sympathetic to Moscow.

When Mr Merz took office in May last year, he promised to revive Germany’s struggling economy, rebuild the military to deter Russia and reduce irregular immigration. His aim was to address voters’ concerns and win support away from the AfD.

Instead, the AfD now leads national opinion polls, while Mr Merz’s personal approval rating has fallen to just above 10 per cent. His reputation has also been damaged by a series of blunt and abrasive remarks.

‘In personal terms, the situation is quite dramatic’ for Mr Merz, said pollster Roland Abold of the Infratest Dimap research institute.

‘In our last survey in September, 13 per cent were still satisfied with his political performance. These are the lowest figures we have ever recorded for an incumbent chancellor,’ Mr Abold told AFP.

Some commentators point out that most of Mr Merz’s problems have originated abroad.

The Ukraine and Middle East wars have sent energy prices surging, fuelling a cost-of-living crisis.

Worries about Russia have driven a massive German rearmament drive, sped up by US President Donald Trump’s often hostile stance against European Nato allies.

And China’s rapid rise is turning a long-time German export market into a fierce industrial competitor.

‘Tough luck for Friedrich Merz,’ wrote Berenberg bank chief economist Holger Schmieding. Aside from the AfD challenge, the latest ‘surge in petrol prices and the public debate about his future are exacerbating his travails,’ he argued.

Mr Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin ‘have triggered the crises that have sent oil and gas prices into the stratosphere’, Schmieding pointed out.

‘But although parts of the right-wing AfD are close to both of them… voters tend to lay the blame for their pain at the ruling coalition led by Merz rather than at the friends of AfD.’

Nonetheless, Mr Schmieding judged it more likely than not that Mr Merz would weather the current political storm and serve out his term until 2029.

The AfD’s election victory in Germany earlier this month sparked alarm among EU leaders.  

Allies of France’s Emmanuel Macron called for a ‘coalition’ to keep the hard right out of power.

Poland’s prime minister also slammed supporters of AfD in his country. ‘In Poland, only idiots or traitors could rejoice the AfD triumph in Germany,’ Donald Tusk wrote on X.

And Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Monday warned an ‘extremist threat’ was advancing throughout the world.

Meanwhile, Mr Merz admitted he was left ‘shocked’ by the result and acknowledged reforms were needed in the country. 

‘This is the heaviest electoral defeat the (CDU party) has suffered in years, in decades,’ a crestfallen Merz told a press conference, a day after the vote, ‘Naturally, this will have to have consequences’.