Donald Trump is opening the final month of the midterm campaign on some of the nation’s most reliably Republican ground—a decision that has sparked confusion and concern within GOP circles.
According to the Republican National Committee, the president is scheduled to hold rallies in Durant, Oklahoma, and Mobile, Alabama, on October 1 and 2.
The choice of locations has raised questions because both areas are deeply entrenched Republican strongholds.
During election years, national party leaders typically travel to swing districts where candidates face competitive races and could benefit most from a presidential appearance.
Yet with fewer than 40 days remaining before Election Day, the RNC and Trump are directing two valuable campaign stops toward districts that supported him by at least 15 percentage points.
“Reminiscent of the VP Cheney last-minute campaign trip to salvage a Wyoming House seat in 2006,” Jewish Insider editor Josh Kraushaar wrote.
That year, even after George W. Bush and Dick Cheney worked to reinforce Republican support in heavily conservative areas, the party suffered a sweeping defeat, losing 37 congressional seats and control of Capitol Hill to Democrats.
Trump’s rallies come as Republican prospects for retaining control of Congress weaken, while prediction markets list Democrats as the favorites to win both the House and Senate.
President Donald Trump is heading to two deeply conservative strongholds for campaign rallies next week, raising questions about why he is not visiting pivotal swing districts likely to determine control of Congress during his remaining years in office
Republicans have also begun warning that districts once considered safely GOP by double-digit margins may no longer be secure.
“Iowa House Republicans were informed by their own pollsters that if you are in a +15 district you’re within the margin for error, if you’re in a +10 district you’re underwater, and that this might end up being an even worse midterm environment than 2006,” Republican commentator Steve Deace wrote on X this week.
The get-out-the-vote push also comes as Trump faces historically weak polling numbers. A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey put his approval rating at 32 percent, his lowest level ever.
Polls indicate that voters are especially focused on the war in Iran, the economy and rising gasoline prices.
Oklahoma’s 2nd Congressional District, where Trump is set to appear next Thursday, is the country’s fourth-most Republican district, according to the Cook Political Report.
The political forecaster rates the district R+28, indicating that the Republican nominee is expected to win with overwhelming support.
Mobile is located in Alabama’s 1st Congressional District.
The district gave nearly 80 percent of its vote to the most recent Republican candidate, but Jerry Carl leads his Democratic challenger by only 10 points this year, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Jake Sherman, a longtime congressional reporter and founder of PunchBowl News, recently noted that Carl is certain to win.
The Cook Political Report rates the Alabama district R+17, signaling that Republicans remain strongly favored in the race.
Still, the two appearances could provide the Republican Party with advantages that are not immediately apparent.
Republicans have lagged in the polls due to voter concerns about the economy and rising gas prices
Trump rallied for Senator Darline Graham in South Carolina last month. He is expected to make increasingly frequent campaign stops to support GOP candidates nationwide ahead of the midterms
Durant, Oklahoma, sits near the border with Texas and is only an hour and a half by car from the Dallas metro area.
Given the proximity, the two areas share a TV market, and Trump’s rally will be broadcast on both sides of the border, making it a two-for-one of sorts, an RNC official told CNN.
The hope among the RNC is that it will boost statewide officials in Oklahoma and Texas, where a tightly contested Senate race costing hundreds of millions of dollars threatens to imperil the GOP’s longstanding control over the Lone Star State.
As for the Alabama rally, Mobile also conveniently shares a TV market that extends into Florida’s panhandle, where the GOP is also the dominant political force.
Like with Texas, the RNC official expressed hope that the event could help statewide officials in Florida, like gubernatorial candidate and Trump ally Congressman Byron Donalds.
Still, there will be plenty of other rallies across the nation, presumably with some in battleground areas that will determine the balance of Congress.
But as the calendar rapidly approaches November, Republicans may start to worry, and some are already turning their back on Trump.
Florida Republican Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar released a blistering video in front of the White House condemning the president for his immigration policies.
‘Some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,’ she said in a campaign ad meant to boost her own chances of staying in Washington, noting some Hispanic Trump supporters ‘feel betrayed.’
