President Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to upstate New York is designed to boost his political ally, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, while also helping Republicans defend vulnerable House seats.
Trump plans to appear alongside Republican gubernatorial nominee Blakeman in Syracuse on Oct. 9, giving the GOP a high-profile opportunity to energize voters as several New York congressional contests grow increasingly competitive.
Blakeman has kept the governor’s race competitive by targeting Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul over taxes and rising energy bills.
His campaign could also influence Republican candidates farther down the ballot. Trump’s challenge will be turning that attention into enough enthusiasm to bring GOP voters to the polls.
“In ’22, New York state determined the House majority. And in 2026, New York could determine it again,” one Republican operative said.
Republicans are looking back to former Rep. Lee Zeldin’s 2022 campaign for governor as evidence that a statewide GOP nominee can lift turnout across New York. Zeldin ultimately lost to Hochul, 53%-47%, but his campaign helped drive Republican participation.
Trump’s presence, however, could produce mixed results. While he remains capable of motivating Republicans, he is also deeply unpopular with many New York Democrats who are already eager to vote against him and his party.
“I think it’s going to cut both ways. On the one hand, Trump’s negatives in New York are very deep. People are very emotional — the ones that don’t like Trump really don’t like him,” said Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship.
Still, Reeher said Trump could help Republicans overcome a turnout disadvantage. “Certainly one thing the guy is good at is getting people ramped up. On balance it may be something that could help the Republican candidates,” he said.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., made a competing push upstate last week, working to build campaign operations aimed at mobilizing voters who do not regularly participate in elections.
Anthony Constantino, the Republican nominee in New York’s 21st Congressional District, has been among the most outspoken Trump supporters in the state. He has even displayed a Trump sign atop his sticker business.
Constantino said Thursday that he was putting another $4 million of his own money into the campaign to keep retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik’s seat in Republican hands. The latest contribution brings his total personal investment to $16 million.
The contest has attracted unusual attention in the North Country, a region where the district has long been considered safely Republican. Democrat Blake Gendebien said his campaign collected $2 million during the most recent fundraising quarter.
Constantino could be forced to spend heavily as signs of a potential “blue wave” emerge, fueled in part by high gas prices and voter frustration over the trade war with Canada.
“That district should not be competitive,” said Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report.
Trump carried the district by 21 percentage points in 2024. But Covey said Constantino’s polarizing profile, combined with the trade war’s particular effects on the region, has made the race unexpectedly competitive.
Another major test is unfolding in the Hudson Valley, where Rep. Mike Lawler’s district remains one of the most closely watched House battlegrounds in the country.
Lawler’s contest against Democrat Cait Conley is effectively tied. An Emerson College poll released Wednesday showed Conley leading 48%-46%, while a new internal poll from Lawler’s campaign put the Republican ahead 50%-47%. Both results fell within their respective margins of error.
“That’s a guy that’s going to be really worried about the turnout issue,” Reeher said.
Trump’s Syracuse appearance could also benefit Republican Kailee Buller, a former senior aide to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. Buller is seeking to unseat Rep. John Mannion, D-N.Y., who won his previous race with 55% of the vote.
