Tropical Storm Isaias has developed over the Gulf of Mexico, with forecasters warning that it could intensify into a Category 2 hurricane within days.
Early Wednesday, Isaias was positioned in the southwestern Gulf, roughly 285 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, and about 580 miles southwest of the Mississippi River’s mouth.
The National Hurricane Center said some weakening could occur as the system approaches the Gulf Coast because of increasing vertical wind shear. Even so, forecasters said Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane at landfall.
Current forecast models show Isaias nearing the U.S. coastline on Friday, with landfall expected between Friday evening and early Saturday somewhere between Biloxi, Mississippi, and Panama City, Florida.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency as the storm approaches.
“Floridians should use this time to put disaster plans in place and make sure their hurricane supply kits are fully stocked,” DeSantis said in a statement.
AccuWeather’s Hurricane Experts said Isaias is expected to become the first hurricane of the 2026 season. If it does, it would mark the latest first Atlantic-basin hurricane to develop in more than a century.
Tropical Storm Isaias has formed over the Gulf of Mexico and could intensify into a Category 2 hurricane in the coming days, forecasters say.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm. The image shows floodwaters moving through Pensacola during Hurricane Sally in 2020.
The National Hurricane Center said hurricane watches will likely be issued later Wednesday for parts of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast.
AccuWeather’s latest forecast has Isaias moving northeast across the Gulf on Thursday before making a northward turn toward the U.S. coast Friday.
The storm could reach Category 1 hurricane strength by 8 p.m. ET Thursday and intensify to Category 2 before coming ashore near the Mississippi-Alabama border at about 11 p.m. ET Friday.
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After landfall, Isaias is forecast to move north through Mississippi and into Tennessee on Saturday, weakening into a low-pressure system by that evening.
The northern Gulf Coast could receive three to six inches of rain from Friday through the weekend, stretching from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, according to the NHC. Some locations may see totals reach 10 inches.
The greatest threat of wind damage and storm-surge flooding is expected close to the landfall zone and immediately east of the storm’s center.
AccuWeather predicts wind gusts of 100 to 120 mph near and just east of Isaias’s center if the system reaches hurricane strength before landfall.
Tropical-storm-force winds, ranging from 40 to 60 mph, could affect a broad section of the Southeast from the central Gulf Coast northward into Tennessee.
Forecast models show Isaias nearing the U.S. coast Friday, with landfall expected from Friday night into early Saturday between Biloxi, Mississippi, and Panama City, Florida.
AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said the storm could also generate severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and waterspouts.
“The most significant severe weather is likely to develop near and east of the center, but the threat could extend hundreds of miles eastward this weekend,” Rayno said.
The Atlantic has yet to produce a hurricane in 2026, putting the season within reach of a record set in 1905 for the latest first hurricane.
If forecast models are correct and Isaias develops into a hurricane, it would be deemed a record-breaking storm.
Meteorologist Matt Devitt said on X: ‘Isaias will likely be one of the most significant storms of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season with a landfall in the US.’
