Democrats are building a sizable lead in early voting as Americans cast ballots in person and by mail, accounting for a clear majority of votes submitted so far.
State election data compiled by TargetSmart and NBC News show Democrats make up 54% of early and mail-in voters, compared with 30% for Republicans and 16% for independents or voters listed as “other.”
That early-voting advantage is also evident in several closely watched Senate contests, including races taking place in traditionally Republican-leaning states.
In Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is facing former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., registered Democrats account for 55% of early voters, compared with 36% for Republicans.
Iowa is showing a similar pattern in the race between Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, and Democrat Josh Turek. Democrats represent 57% of early voters, while Republicans account for 29% and voters listed as “other” make up 14%.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is defending her seat against Democrat Troy Jackson. Democrats hold a 55%-to-19% advantage among early voters, while more than one-quarter are classified as “other.”
The figures do not reveal which candidates voters supported. They show only who has voted or submitted a ballot so far.
“We know the Democrats have the enthusiasm advantage,” said Stephen Voss, a political scientist at the University of Kentucky.
Still, Voss cautioned that the early totals may reflect a broader surge in participation—or simply the habits of reliable voters who routinely cast ballots, regardless of the election.
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Comparing the current numbers with early-voting patterns from four years ago offers one way to assess what the data may mean.
In Republican-leaning Nebraska, where Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts is running against independent Dan Osborne, Democrats have widened their early-vote advantage. They currently account for 45% of ballots compared with 38% for Republicans, versus a 44%-to-41% Democratic edge at the same point in 2022.
According to the Nebraska secretary of state, 89% of Democrats who have voted this year also cast ballots in both 2022 and 2024. About 10% are new voters.
Among Republicans, 91% of early voters participated in previous elections, while just 7% are new voters.
Virginia is also experiencing a sharp increase in early turnout, with about 519,000 ballots submitted compared with 260,000 at the same point in 2022. In left-leaning Fairfax County, the total has doubled.
Texas, meanwhile, is reporting a substantial Democratic advantage in the high-profile contest between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Democrats account for 62% of early voters, compared with 32% for Republicans.
Democrats have traditionally been more likely to vote early or by mail. Former President Donald Trump, however, has frequently criticized mail voting and urged supporters to vote in person on Election Day, describing mail ballots as “inherently corrupt.”
This year, though, Trump has softened and shifted that message both on the campaign trail and online.
In a video released last weekend, Trump addressed supporters from the Oval Office and urged them not to delay if early voting was available in their state. “Go out and vote. Vote early, vote by mail, or vote in person on Election Day, November 3rd,” he said, predicting a midterm victory so large that it would be impossible to rig.
Trump also encouraged voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”
