Trump Faces a Midterm Crisis in Kansas After 100 Years

George McGill’s unassuming grave sits on an exposed Kansas prairie, close to the geographic center of the contiguous United States.

Past the neat, compact cemetery, fields of corn and stretches of wild grass run uninterrupted toward the horizon. A weather-beaten barn is the only visible structure. Visitors are rare, and even Kansans—known for their long memories—have largely forgotten McGill’s name.

McGill was the last Democrat elected to the US Senate from this deeply Republican state. That victory came in 1932, amid the Great Depression, as drought and dust transformed the plains. Since then, Republicans have dominated Senate elections in Kansas for 94 years—the longest uninterrupted run for any party in any state in American history.

Yet that historic streak could end in the midterm elections on November 3. Donald Trump carried Kansas by landslides three times, but the average of the polls now shows the Senate contest tied.

A Democratic win could also give the party the final boost needed to take control of the US Senate, currently held by Republicans 53 seats to 47. That would set up a punishing final two years for Trump, including the prospect of impeachment. With Republicans expected to lose the House, retaining the Senate has become their central priority.

The growing number of Kansans willing to consider a Democrat is clear about whom they blame for the unexpected vulnerability: Trump. His approval rating in the state has fallen to 40 percent.

In Pawnee Rock, the hamlet of just 180 residents where McGill was raised, staunchly Republican Mayor Paul Umble has no plans to change parties. Even so, he concedes with a wry smile: “I’m not thrilled with Trump at the moment.”

The reason is easy to understand. In Kansas, the election’s defining issue can be summed up in one phrase: the cost of diesel. In a state roughly the combined size of England and Scotland, goods and farm products depend heavily on rail and diesel-powered trucks.

At the Pawnee Rock gas station, the diesel price has climbed to $6.09, which locals attribute to Trump’s Iran war. Before Iran, the price was about $4. The timing is especially painful because farmers are in the middle of harvest. “There’s a lot of upset about it,” Umble says. “People are struggling.”

Republicans are still expected to dominate rural western Kansas on November 3—a region where, as the saying goes, even the Wicked Witch of the West could win with a red ribbon. Democrats, meanwhile, should build a substantial advantage in the suburbs around Kansas City. That leaves Sedgwick County, positioned near the state’s geographic and political center, as the likely battleground that could determine both the Kansas result and control of the Senate.

Sedgwick County includes Wichita, a city of about 400,000 on the muddy Arkansas River, watched over by the famous Native American statue known as the Keeper of the Plains. Trump defeated Kamala Harris there in 2024 by 56 percent to 42 percent, close to his 16-point statewide margin. Democrats must improve significantly in the county if they are to win.

The two Senate candidates are both gray-haired men in their 60s, and from a distance their images on campaign billboards can look remarkably alike. Both, however, carry political baggage.

Democrat Adam Hamilton is the more naturally charismatic of the two. He leads the state’s largest megachurch, a sleek modern building that resembles a UFO that has landed. On the campaign trail, he frequently invokes The Wizard of Oz, arguing that Washington lacks the brain, heart and courage represented by the tin man, scarecrow and lion. But Hamilton is also contending with a scandal involving allegations that his church covered up sexual abuse.

Republican incumbent Roger Marshall, an OB-GYN, faces controversies of his own, including questions over lawsuits brought against his patients and allegations that he effectively lived in Florida.

As criticism mounted over lawsuits seeking payment for medical bills, Marshall said he had not personally taken part in the cases, describing them as routine collection efforts.

He has explained that his Florida home allowed him to spend time with his grandchildren. Claims that he spent too much time there, he said, were “all lies” and a “myth made by the social media Nazis.”

At the rally, Trump made an unsubstantiated claim of his own, saying Marshall would be “breaking the law” if he failed to collect money patients owed.

However, as a staunch loyalist, Marshall’s biggest hurdle to winning over independents in Wichita, is his links to Trump.

As early voting began at Wichita’s main library, truck driver Greg Florence, 65, a former Republican, told Our News Outlet: ‘I just think the Republican Party have basically sold their soul to the devil. Everything they’re doing to go along with Donald Trump. I don’t like it.

‘It (diesel) is freaking ridiculously high. I never seen it that high. We’re just never ending the (Iran) war. Who’s to blame? Donald Trump. He’s the president.’

Jeff Mohr, 65, a retired accountant, said he had voted Republican most of his life, but was going Democrat.

‘Mostly, it’s Trump’s demeanor,’ he said. ‘And the Republicans won’t stand their ground. I want checks from Congress on the Defense Secretary and DHS (Department of Homeland Security).’

Lynn Ferguson, 62, a registered Republican who works in a quilt shop, said she was now ‘leaning Democrat’ because Marshall backed Trump over the January 6 riot.

‘I think integrity is a big issue,’ she said. ‘I just feel like anybody that is an election denier does not deserve to be in office.’

Rising grocery prices, and her children being unable to find affordable housing, were factors, but her shift was more about ‘who we are’ as a nation, she said. 

She was appalled by recent ICE raids in southwest Kansas, which saw over 100 arrests and hurt the beef and dairy industries as Hispanic workers stayed home.

‘You know, engraved on the base of the Statue of Liberty is the poem, “Give me your tired, your poor, those yearning to be free…” we’re a country of immigrants,’ said Ferguson.

More than one voter invoked the spirit of John Brown, the abolitionist who took up arms against slavery in Kansas

Damien Gilbert 32, a Democrat, said his father, a lifelong Republican, had joined him out canvassing for Hamilton. For his father, the main issue was Ukraine.

‘This (Kansas) was the home of [Former President] Dwight D Eisenhower,’ Gilbert said. ‘The thing that’s really got him (my father) angry is what Trump has done with our relationship to our allies and especially his betrayal of Ukraine. We are paying attention. We’re disgusted.

‘Kansans are, by and large, decent, normal, commonsense folks. We also don’t appreciate feeling taken for granted.’

It’s that kind of sentiment that led Trump to fly to Wichita this week to turn things around. And he had some explaining to do.

In addition to the Iran war-induced diesel spike, Trump recently signed a declaration allowing cheap beef imports into the US in a bid to reduce the price of hamburgers. But in Kansas, where cows outnumber people two to one, ranchers were outraged at being undercut.

Last month, the President also announced Canadian plane maker Bombardier would be banned from selling jets in the US. Bombardier is a major employer in Wichita, which is known as the ‘Air Capital of the World.’

It all amounted to a self-inflicted Trump triple whammy – on diesel, beef and planes – against one the states that has been most loyal to him, backing him with huge margins in three presidential elections.

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However, when he arrived at the 6,000-capacity Heartland Credit Union Arena just outside Wichita on Monday night, all appeared forgiven, at least by the MAGA base. A huge crowd featuring women in bedazzled Trump jackets and men in cowboy hats snaked through a field among trucks bearing the slogan ‘EAT BEEF.’

Michael Green, 66, dressed head to toe in stars and stripes, was in line eight hours early. Looking at the thousands-strong army behind him, he said: ‘I would like to think the silent majority, in this case, is a conservative Republican, will win this for Roger Marshall.

‘In my opinion, most conservatives are nose to the grindstone; they work every day, earn a living, take care of their family, treat everybody fair. They’re not in everybody’s face.’

Doug Hye, 72, a retired ‘technology guy,’ said he was ‘absolutely sure’ Wichita would decide the result.

‘I think this (rally) will get out the vote,’ he said. ‘A lot of the independents in Kansas are really Republicans but they kind of want to hold the Republicans accountable. So, they just say they’re an independent.’

Jenny Zeller, 50, a hairdresser, said: ‘Everybody needs to quit worrying about the price of gas. It has nothing to do with Trump, nothing to do with this election.’

Shirley Rainey, 57, a grandmother, said of a Democrat potentially getting elected: ‘It just scares me to even think about it, honestly. So I just pray people get out and vote. I’ve heard his (Hamilton’s) church is either divided, or broke apart, I’m not sure which.’

Outside the rally, protesters held up ‘Trump is a traitor’ signs but, this being Kansas, one of them sincerely wished passing Trump supporters a good night.

Inside the arena, a giant screen declared ‘God Made Trump’ and Marshall came dancing on stage, fist-pumping to Johnny B. Goode, before claiming his ‘woke’ opponent ‘doesn’t know the difference between a bull and a steer,’ ‘supports drag shows,’ believes people ‘shouldn’t drive trucks,’ and, worst of all, ‘wants Kansans to stop eating beef!’

Then, he brought on legendary rocker and hunter Ted Nugent, who told the whooping crowd: ‘I bowl with a 10mm (handgun)! This is the heartland! You ARE the heartland! They’re not Democrats… they’re communists!’

When the President took the stage, it was vintage 2016 Trump. He free-wheeled for an hour and 40 minutes, during which he accused Hamilton of ‘mocking Jesus’ and being ‘very strange.’ For good measure, the President suggested that Hamilton may be a ‘pervert.’

The biggest crowd response of the night came when he accused ‘Dumocrats’ of wanting ‘transgender for everybody and the absolute mutilization of your children.’

Trump also revealed that he hadn’t known Bombardier had a base in Wichita and would ‘take care’ of the workers there. He also vowed to launch a ‘harvest fuel relief program’ providing farmers $8 billion to offset diesel costs.

While some Kansas ranchers have criticized Trump over the cheap beef imports, others see it as a blip and media hype rather than a genuine issue.

North of Wichita, on his idyllic farm amid some of his 100 head of Angus cows, rancher Brad Rayl, a Republican, shook his head and said: ‘Everybody lost their mind, it moved the cattle market for a day. It was a non-event.’

He said people looking at the business case over many years knew there was only one choice in the election, but people in rural areas had to actually get out and vote.

‘I think he (Marshall) wins by a nose,’ he said.

In 2020 Marshall won Kansas by 11 points, and Sedgwick County by nine points.

Across Kansas, 45 per cent of the roughly 2 million voters are registered Republicans, 25 percent registered Democrats and 30 percent unaffiliated. The state is being heavily polled and is essentially a dead heat. An Emerson College poll from last month showed Hamilton winning the independents by 15 points.

A colossal amount of money is pouring into the race with nearly $60 million spent so far. For the final straight, Republicans have bought $10 million worth of TV ads, and Democrats $5 million.

The ads are an unabashedly cynical and negative race to the bottom by both sides.

Republicans are focusing on Hamilton’s handling of an incident involving a volunteer accused of molesting two teenage boys at a camp connected to his Church of the Resurrection, which is the nation’s largest United Methodist Church congregation.

The allegations were only investigated internally, the volunteer returned to the camp and was ⁠again accused of inappropriate behavior before eventually being reported to police. Hamilton has admitted the church should have gone to police sooner but denies a cover-up.

Republicans ran a TV advert accusing him of ‘protecting a pedophile.’ Democrats responded with an ad accusing Marshall of ‘protecting child abusers and rapists’ because he voted against releasing the Epstein Files.

They have also targeted him for having a large home in Sarasota, Florida home while his residence in Kansas is a 1,120sq ft cabin on a ranch north of Wichita. Amid the allegations of sunning himself, Marshall sold the Florida home for $1.35 million last week.

Coincidentally, his Kansas cabin is close to Pawnee Rock. Mayor Umble told Our News Outlet that Marshall had spent a lot of time in the area and worked at a nearby hospital.

‘He delivered a lot of babies,’ Mayor Umble said.

Meanwhile, Republican strategists are pouring into the state as part of a bid to rescue Marshall. They know many Republicans are mad but believe they will come home on Election Day. However, no one is staking their hunting cabin on it.

Dr Alexandra Middlewood, associate professor of political science at Wichita State University, told Our News Outlet that voters in the state were treating the midterms as a referendum on Trump.

‘Particularly the diesel issue here in Kansas is really impacting and a lot of voters are able to make that direct connection to the war in Iran, which the president has started,’ she said. ‘And Roger Marshall has tied himself very, very closely to the President.’

For Marshall, it is a balancing act. He must hope that Trump’s supporters turn out en masse for him, while also trying not to alienate independents.

‘He is really between a rock and a hard place,’ said Middlewood. ‘To be honest, having this rally here, just north of Wichita, is going to hurt Roger Marshall just as much as it may help him. A lot of voters are feeling betrayed by the President.

‘It’s really this perfect storm of issues in the United States right now that have to do with the economy, but also the (Democratic) candidate for Senate is more moderate, is already incredibly well known in the state, he’s the pastor of the largest church and people know who he is.

‘It (a Democratic win) would be a wake up call to the Republican Party. The loss of a Senate seat in Kansas, one that has been held by a Republican for nearly 100 years, would be a large crack in the Republican armor, and a sure sign that the Republican Party is in major trouble, and not just here in Kansas.’