The prospects of a meeting this year between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are diminishing, according to five people familiar with the discussions.
Trump, the only US president to have met a North Korean leader, has been pushing to revive direct diplomacy with Pyongyang. North Korea, however, has shown little enthusiasm for negotiations focused on limiting its nuclear weapons program.
Washington has received no answer from Pyongyang about a possible Trump-Kim summit, the people said. With next month’s regional gathering in China approaching — and viewed as a potential venue for talks — the window for arranging a meeting is narrowing. Four of the sources were briefed by senior US or South Korean officials, while the fifth is a South Korean official.
North Korean state media has indicated that Pyongyang would demand significant concessions before agreeing to a bilateral summit, potentially including sanctions relief. That stance contrasts with comments from Kim’s powerful sister, who has described the relationship between the two leaders as “excellent.”
Trump ‘open’ to talks, nothing scheduled: officials
In August, Trump said he intended to meet Kim later this year and claimed the North Korean leader had responded to his outreach.
South Korea’s intelligence agency told lawmakers late last month that there was roughly a 50% chance Trump and Kim would meet on the sidelines of the November 18-19 summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group in Shenzhen, China.
Trump, who held three meetings with Kim during his first term, struck a more cautious tone on Monday. He played down the likelihood of meeting the North Korean leader at either the APEC summit or a separate regional gathering in the Philippines, both scheduled for November.
“I get along with him very well, and I’m not sure that anybody’s asking for a meeting,” Trump told reporters at the White House.
A second South Korean official familiar with the matter said North Korea had taken no steps suggesting it was preparing for talks with Trump. All five sources spoke anonymously because they were discussing private diplomatic communications.
South Korea’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Its ambassador to Washington, Kang Kyung-wha, said last week that there had been no substantive progress toward arranging a Trump-Kim summit.
North Korea’s permanent mission to the United Nations also did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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A White House official, speaking anonymously, said Trump had held “three historic summits” with Kim during his first term that helped stabilize the Korean Peninsula.
“US policy on North Korea has not changed. President Trump remains open to talking with Kim Jong Un, without any preconditions. No meetings to announce at this time. The leaders will meet at the appropriate time,” the official said.
A senior US official said last month that Trump was “ready” to engage with Kim and that “the ball is very much in North Korea’s court.”
A Trump-Kim summit could come abruptly
Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, put the odds of a Trump-Kim meeting at the APEC summit below 10%.
“If Trump wants a meeting with Kim, I think the North Koreans are looking for a costly public signal,” Panda said. He argued that Washington’s recent decision to reduce military exercises with South Korea had not gone far enough to meet Pyongyang’s expectations.
The United States has at times sought China’s help in opening a channel to North Korea, relying on Beijing’s longstanding relationship with Kim to support diplomatic efforts.
So far, however, friendly exchanges between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping — expected to continue at APEC — have failed to produce a breakthrough in US-North Korean relations.
North and South Korea remain technically at war under an armistice that halted the 1950-53 Korean War. The United States maintains approximately 28,500 troops and military equipment in South Korea as part of the countries’ joint defense posture against North Korea, which continues to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
South Korean officials, citing estimates from private research groups, have said North Korea may possess between 80 and 120 nuclear warheads.
Trump’s meetings with Kim in 2018 and 2019, while historic, yielded no concrete results.
“I don’t know when they’re going to meet,” US Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel told an event in Seoul organized by the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea on Wednesday. If they could arrange a meeting, she said, it would likely be announced abruptly.
“If it happens, then it’s going to happen the next day or within a couple of days’ notice.”
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