The Pentagon has privately urged European leaders to stop “poking” Russia, after Vladimir Putin declared that Moscow is prepared for a potential war with the West.
Nato members have been asked in recent weeks to moderate their public language about the threat posed by Russia.
According to sources, US officials believe some European governments are putting continental security at risk by intensifying their warnings about Moscow.
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are among the countries that received messages urging restraint in public statements, according to people familiar with the discussions who spoke anonymously.
It remains unclear whether the same advice was delivered to other European governments during bilateral meetings.
In a chilling warning to the West, Mr Putin said last night that Russia was ready for a major confrontation with Europe.
The Russian leader warned that a conflict with Nato would produce “no winners”.
The comments came just days after Defence Secretary Wes Streeting warned that Britain must be prepared for war in little more than 1,000 days.
Vladimir Putin speaks at the Russia-Africa Summit in Moscow on October 29
The Russian leader says his forces are prepared for any confrontation with Europe, pictured with a Russian tank in Ukraine
Buses and trucks burn at a transport company compound hit by an overnight Russian drone strike in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on October 29, 2026
He said Britain’s enemies could be “in a position to attack” by 2030, urging the country to “prepare for the worst”.
The Pentagon’s appeal for calmer rhetoric comes as the Trump administration renews efforts to secure a negotiated end to the full-scale war in Ukraine, which has now entered its fifth year.
The latest initiative combines possible incentives for Moscow, including sanctions relief, with pressure on Kyiv to stop striking Russian energy infrastructure.
A Pentagon official said: “Private conversations among allies are just that, so we will not comment on these allegations.”
One source said US officials had taken note of claims by European leaders that Russia was cornered and resorting to increasingly desperate tactics as its invasion of Ukraine appeared to be slowing.
The messages were reportedly delivered in part by Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby, a central figure in Washington’s review of US troop levels in Europe.
None of the sources—three European officials and one US official—said the advice was delivered in an aggressive or confrontational way.
The exchanges highlight a broader debate within Nato over how openly the alliance should describe the danger posed by an increasingly assertive Russia.
The Trump administration has renewed efforts to negotiate an end to the full-scale war in Ukraine
A car is engulfed in flames after a Russian airstrike hit Chernyhiv on October 29
Some Western officials argue that repeatedly highlighting the Russian threat could serve the Kremlin’s interests by spreading fear and weakening public support for Ukraine.
Others say European governments must be candid with voters about the sacrifices and resources required to deter Moscow.
That argument has gained urgency as Russia appears to be intensifying a covert sabotage campaign across Europe.
Moscow has denied pursuing such a campaign.
One person familiar with the discussions said Mr Colby recently told a Baltic official that there should be no “poking” of Russia.
The official said Mr Colby cited public claims that Russia was “cornered like a rat” as an example of rhetoric that could prove counterproductive.
It was not immediately clear which specific comment he had in mind.
However, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal described Mr Putin as a “rat in a corner” in late September, arguing that the Russian leader may be turning to sabotage in Europe as his forces become increasingly bogged down in Ukraine.
“We are helping you. The Americans are there,” a separate European official said, summarising the Pentagon’s recent private assurances.
At another recent meeting, Pentagon officials reportedly told an Estonian delegation to adopt a “measured” tone, although the person briefed on the discussion said no specific statement was criticised.
The defence ministries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia did not respond to requests for comment. Nato also declined to comment.
One European official said the Pentagon’s cordial advice was difficult to understand because intelligence agencies in the Baltic states have consistently played down the likelihood of Russia testing Nato’s mutual-defence commitments in recent months.
By contrast, intelligence services in other Nato countries have publicly warned that Russia could substantially expand its sabotage operations in the near future.
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The US messages arrive at a particularly tense moment for European security.
Western intelligence officials say Moscow has recently stepped up deniable attacks targeting Nato countries.
On Wednesday, German prosecutors announced the arrest of two Belarusians accused of plotting to set fire to a building or critical infrastructure site in the Nuremberg area.
Mr Putin warned that a conflict between Russia and Nato would have “no winners”
In September, the German government accused Russia of attempting to stage a drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport. Moscow denied the allegation.
Meanwhile, US officials have been discussing possible commercial agreements with Russia as part of the Trump administration’s wider effort to bring peace to Ukraine.
The approach has received a mixed response from European governments, many of which want the Kremlin to remain under sustained economic pressure.
Pentagon planners are also reassessing the US military presence in Europe, a review that could result in a significant reduction in American troop numbers on the continent.
US officials have said European Nato members must take greater responsibility for their own defence, particularly as Washington concentrates on challenges in the Middle East, Latin America and East Asia.
Mr Putin said last night that any conflict between Russia and Nato would end with “no winners”.
Although he insisted that he did not want a bloody war with Europe, he warned that Russia and its armed forces were ready if tensions continued to rise.
“Many people keep talking about preparing for war by 2030. Is that right or wrong?” Mr Putin asked at a press conference in Moscow on Thursday.
“First of all, we are ready, but we don’t want any war with Europe. As for them, if anyone wants it, let them prepare.
“But they have not achieved their goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia. It’s unlikely that this will be possible by 2030.
“And if things go too far, there will be no winners at all. Let no one forget that.”
Speaking at a Russia-Africa summit, the ageing leader said Moscow did not want a situation similar to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz to develop in the Baltic Sea.
The ominous reference was to the fuel shortages and soaring prices triggered by Donald Trump’s war against Iran, which has resulted in the waterway being blockaded.
His remarks also followed an earlier warning from Estonia’s foreign minister that Nato could impose a comparable blockade on Russia in the Baltic.
Margus Tsahkna said the alliance could close the strait “within hours” to damage Russia’s economic “lifeline” if Mr Putin continued threatening Europe.
The Estonian diplomat said such an operation against the international waterway between Estonia and Finland would create an “existential” crisis for Moscow, which is already grappling with mounting economic problems.
Speaking to journalists during a visit to London, Mr Tsahkna said: “We are able to form within hours [a force of] 50,000 experienced combat troops.
“We have all these capabilities. The concept of Nato deterrence is, if Russia is invading, there will be the military aggression.
“We will be able to close the Baltic Sea within hours. This is a lifeline for the Russian economy.”
The waterway is considered crucial to financing Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, with roughly 60 per cent of the country’s seaborne oil exports passing through the region.
The 216-nautical-mile corridor is largely surrounded by Nato members and could become a target in the opening stages of any conflict.
Mr Putin’s latest sabre-rattling comes amid concerns that Russia could target Nato through drone attacks, cyber operations and sabotage against critical infrastructure.
European military commanders fear Moscow is expanding its so-called hybrid attacks to test Nato’s defences and intimidate countries supporting Ukraine.
Western intelligence officials have separately warned that Mr Putin has the “appetite” to widen Russia’s sabotage campaign across Europe—a development that sources fear could contribute to a war by 2030.
Earlier this month, Germany’s military said it faced a “significant” risk of Russian sabotage after raising its threat assessment to the second-highest level for the first time.
In Britain, Russia is believed to have been behind the firebombing of two homes and a car linked to former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.
Moscow has also been blamed for a series of drone incursions over British military sites in 2024. Intelligence analysts said the aircraft may have been launched from sanctioned Russian oil tankers to monitor nuclear weapons facilities and US airbases.
Russian drones have also entered the airspace of other European nations. Italian fighter jets were scrambled last month to intercept one of the Kremlin’s aircraft over Lithuania.
Western intelligence agencies have dismissed fears that Russia is prepared to use nuclear weapons against Europe, despite threats from Kremlin-linked commentators in recent months.
They have nevertheless warned that Mr Putin’s drive to expand sabotage operations across Europe could trigger a dangerous miscalculation and accidentally spark a direct confrontation with Nato.
