Allan Lichtman, the American University historian whose forecasting record includes nine correct calls in the past 11 presidential elections, has delivered his final outlook for the 2026 midterm elections.
Lichtman expects Democrats to take control of both chambers of Congress when voters cast their ballots next Tuesday, predicting victories in the House and Senate.
His two misses came in 2000, when he forecast an Al Gore victory over George W. Bush, and in 2024, when he predicted Kamala Harris would defeat Donald Trump.
Speaking to The Times, Lichtman said several indicators—including President Donald Trump’s approval rating, national polling, Democratic voter enthusiasm and early-ballot returns—suggest Republicans are facing a severe backlash.
“When a president’s approval rating is as low as Trump’s, the White House party loses an average of 40 House seats and six Senate seats,” Lichtman said. “That is not a prediction. It simply shows how strongly the political environment is moving against Republicans.”
He said Democrats hold a seven- to 11-point lead over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, a measure he views as more dependable than polls focused on individual contests.
The historian also highlighted what he described as an unusual Democratic advantage in voter motivation.
“Republicans generally have the turnout edge, but this time Democratic enthusiasm appears to be stronger,” he said. Early voting, he added, “looks pretty good for Democrats” as well.
Lichtman estimates that Democrats have a 67 percent chance of winning the Senate, with a 51-49 Democratic majority representing his most likely scenario.
Historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman answers questions during an interview in September of 2024
A person fills their ballot in early voting for the midterm elections on October 25, 2026 in Cary, North Carolina
Such a result would mark a dramatic shift in the balance of power. Democrats began the election cycle needing to gain four Senate seats to erase the Republican Party’s 53-47 advantage, with several key races unfolding in states that have traditionally favored the GOP.
Lichtman attributed some of the Republican Party’s difficulties to what he called “really bad” candidates, naming Ken Paxton in Texas, Roger Marshall in Kansas and Darline Graham in South Carolina.
He also criticized the vast sums of outside money flowing into the campaigns.
“It’s a shame—our system is based on the sovereignty of the people, not the sovereignty of wealth,” Lichtman said.
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His forecast has Democrats capturing Senate seats in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas while retaining their seat in Michigan. He also sees a possible Democratic upset in Alaska, where Mary Peltola is competing.
“It’s astonishing that Democrats are competitive in South Carolina, a state Trump won by 18 points,” he said. “Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since the Great Depression in 1932, yet that race is close. Iowa is also essentially a toss-up.”
“If you had shown me this map eight months ago, I would have thought you were crazy,” he added.
Republicans now control the House by a narrow 218-214 margin, but Lichtman expects that advantage to disappear on election night.
“Democrats need to win only a handful of seats to take the majority,” he said. “I put the odds above 90 percent.”
South Carolina Republican Darline Graham campaigns alongside President Donald Trump in Pendelton last week
Democratic nominee for US Senate in Michigan Abdul El-Sayed speaks during a campaign event Wednesday, October 14, 2026, in Detroit
Texas Democratic candidate for US Senate James Talarico speaks at a rally ahead of the midterm elections in Lubbock, Texas
The current political climate, Lichtman said, resembles 1966, when Democrats suffered major losses during Lyndon Johnson’s presidency amid growing opposition to the Vietnam War and widespread domestic unrest.
Even after his incorrect 2024 prediction, Lichtman remains confident in the historical model behind his forecasts.
“No one has a record like mine—not even close,” he said. “Nothing is perfect, but being right roughly 90 percent of the time is a strong record.”
“I’m not psychic, and I don’t have a crystal ball,” Lichtman added. “My method is grounded in history.”
He argued that Democrats might be positioned for an even larger victory if not for the unprecedented scale of outside spending.
“Without the intervention of billionaires, it would be a massive Democratic sweep,” Lichtman said, citing figures including Elon Musk. According to CNN, Musk had spent more than $400 million supporting Republican candidates this year as of mid-October.
