Texas is heading into Tuesday’s election with a surge of new voters, many of them Hispanic Texans who did not participate in the 2024 presidential contest.
More than 763,000 Texans have already voted early despite skipping the last presidential election, according to data shared by Democratic analyst Tom Bonier.
Bonier’s figures show that over 367,000 of those voters are Hispanic, representing almost half of the increase. Earlier data he released indicated that 39 percent of the Hispanic voters were younger than 30.
The unexpectedly strong turnout has encouraged Democrats, with some strategists suggesting that President Trump’s aggressive immigration agenda and widely criticized economic performance may be motivating voters who previously stayed home.
“Just jaw-dropping!!! A Democratic wave and a Latino Tsunami on the way!!!” Democratic strategist Maria Cardona wrote on X.
Hispanic voters shifted sharply toward Trump in 2024, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley, the heavily Latino region along the Mexican border.
But actions by the Trump administration that critics describe as excessive immigration enforcement now appear to be testing, and potentially weakening, the coalition that helped return him to the White House.
The Texas turnout figures emerged as Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton appeared to remove a planned stop at the Alamo from his campaign bus tour.
The drill and dance team for Donna High School, walk to the high school football game on October 30, 2026 in Donna, Texas. Latin Grammy winner and Democratic candidate for US House Bobby Pulido appears well positioned to flip the 15th Congressional District seat in a heavily Latino district which President Trump dominated in 2024
Republican US Senate candidate, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton arrives for a campaign event at Cullen Yards on October 31, 2026 in Fort Worth, Texas
Tourists pose for a souvenir photograph in front of Mission San Antonio de Valero, better known as The Alamo. The former Franciscan mission was the site of the Battle of the Alamo in 1836 during Texas’ war for independence from Mexico where Texian defenders were defeated by Mexican troops under General Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna
Paxton had intended to stage his final campaign appearance at the Alamo, one of the most recognizable landmarks from the Texas Revolution. Instead, his schedule now lists stops in Conroe and Allen on Monday, more than 300 miles away.
The Alamo complex does include a designated free-speech area that may be used without a permit, although amplified sound, tents and tables are prohibited under its restrictions.
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It was not immediately clear whether Paxton had planned to use that space, another location within the complex or nearby private property for the previously announced bus stop.
Paxton, Texas’ current attorney general, is locked in a competitive Senate race with Democratic state representative James Talarico.
The Alamo Trust, the organization responsible for overseeing the historic site, told Texas Public Radio that it had not been informed of any plans for Paxton to appear there.
The site’s “Rules of Reverence” prohibit gatherings centered on political advocacy, public policy or unaffiliated fundraising, regardless of political affiliation.
A Quantus Insights poll conducted from October 26 to 28 gave Paxton a narrow lead. He was backed by 49 percent of respondents, compared with 48 percent for Talarico.
A CNN/SSRS survey released during the final week of October showed the opposite result, with Talarico ahead by six points. The Democrat received support from 49 percent of those surveyed, while Paxton stood at 43 percent.
Both campaigns regard the contest as effectively tied within the margin of error, though Democrats saw several encouraging developments on Sunday.
Republican candidate for US Senate Ken Paxton speaks during a midterm campaign rally at Cullen Yards in Fort Worth, Texas on October 31, 2026
Democratic US Senate candidate James Talarico waves to the crowd at a midterm election rally in Houston, Texas
Republicans are hoping to secure a narrow victory in Texas, but both candidates have faced significant challenges throughout the campaign.
Paxton captured the Republican nomination with Trump’s endorsement after defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn, a primary battle that left him estranged from many established GOP donors and some longtime Republican voters.
The Senate race is now classified as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report, after previously being considered safely “Republican.”
