The path to the 2027 House majority may run through the Empire State.
New York is once again expected to play a decisive role in determining which party controls the House of Representatives — four years after Republicans gained four seats in the state and captured the chamber in 2022.
Political strategists and analysts nationwide are watching New York closely. Although the state generally leans Democratic, several high-profile contests remain competitive in the handful of swing districts that could shape the national balance of power.
“We have a chance in New York to play an important part in winning back the House majority,” state Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs said.
“Hakeem Jeffries will be the next speaker of the House,” Jacobs added, referring to the Brooklyn Democrat and House minority leader.
Jacobs predicted that Democrats would win the House comfortably, with every incumbent securing reelection and the party potentially picking up two more seats in the Hudson Valley and upstate.
State Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox also acknowledged New York’s importance as the GOP holds a narrow 218-214 majority, with one independent member and two vacancies in the 435-seat chamber.
“Of course New York is important. The New York races were important in the Republicans taking the House in 2022,” Cox said.
New York’s competitive districts helped Republicans take control of the House four years ago, when a red wave carried the party into the majority.
The GOP captured two seats on Long Island and two more in the Hudson Valley.
Republican George Santos defeated Democrat Robert Zimmerman in the North Shore Nassau County-Queens seat in the 3rd District after Democrat Tom Suozzi chose to run for governor rather than seek reelection.
At the same time, Republican Joseph D’Esposito defeated Democrat Laura Gillen in the 4th District, which includes Nassau County’s South Shore and beach communities.
In the lower Hudson Valley’s 17th District, Republican Mike Lawler pulled off an upset against Democratic incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney, who was then chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Republican Marc Molinaro defeated Democrat Josh Riley in the redrawn 19th District.
Republicans also benefited from GOP gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin outperforming Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul at the top of the ticket in the competitive House districts.
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi even cited Hochul’s weak showing in those districts as a factor in the Democratic losses.
The circumstances were different four years ago, when then-President Joe Biden was facing political backlash in the midterms and Democrats were hurt by lingering concerns over COVID-19 and inflation.
Two years later, the party’s fortunes had largely shifted. Democrats were better organized for the 2024 presidential election and reclaimed three of the four most competitive seats in New York.
Suozzi ran for his former seat after Santos was exposed as a fraud and expelled from the House. Suozzi won a February 2024 special election and retained the seat that fall by defeating former Assemblyman Michael LiPetri by three points.
Gillen also won a rematch against one-term incumbent D’Esposito in the 4th Congressional District, while Riley defeated Molinaro again in the 19th District.
Lawler was the only Republican of the four to survive, defeating former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones in 2024.
This time, four New York seats remain competitive.
3rd District – Rep. Tom Suozzi vs. Mike LiPetri
Incumbent Suozzi is facing Mike LiPetri, an attorney and former state Assembly member who narrowly lost to him by three percentage points in the 2024 election.
The district covers suburban communities along Nassau County’s North Shore, as well as portions of Queens and Huntington in Suffolk County.
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Suozzi is serving his second stint in the House after representing the district from 2017 to 2023. He left Congress to run for governor in 2022, losing the Democratic primary to Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Republican Michael LiPetri, a former Nassau County executive, is once again mounting a serious challenge to Suozzi.
A Trump-aligned super PAC has invested about $10 million in LiPetri’s campaign. The challenger has also secured an endorsement from Suozzi’s hometown police department, which backed Suozzi in the election just two years ago.
4th District – Rep. Laura Gillen vs. Jeanine Driscoll
Incumbent Gillen is running against Jeanine Driscoll, the receiver of taxes in the town of Hempstead.
The swing district consists of a diverse collection of communities along Nassau County’s South Shore. A Republican won the seat in 2022 before Gillen, a Democrat, captured it in 2024.
Gillen challenged Republican Anthony D’Esposito in 2022 and defeated him in 2024. D’Esposito, now the inspector general at the US Department of Labor, declined to challenge Gillen again this year.
Gillen has faced criticism for taking credit for funding programs she had voted against and has been accused of being a “serial tax hiker.”
17th District — Rep. Mike Lawler vs. Cait Conley
Lawler is facing Democrat Cait Conley, an Army combat veteran and former national security adviser in the Biden administration.
More than $50 million has been spent on advertising in the Lawler-Conley contest, according to an analysis by tracking firm AdImpact. Republican groups have accounted for $30 million, while Democratic groups have spent $20.9 million.
That makes it the second-most expensive House race in the country by ad spending, trailing only North Carolina’s 1st District, where $50.4 million has been spent.
21st District — Anthony Constantino vs. Blake Gendebien
The race in the Republican-leaning 21st District in the North Country has become unexpectedly competitive after Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik decided not to seek reelection.
Democrat Blake Gendebien, a farmer, is challenging firebrand Republican businessman Anthony Constantino, who does not live in the district.
Democrats appear to believe they have a real chance of winning the seat. Their House Majority PAC has spent $1.4 million, including on an ad criticizing Constantino for supporting President Trump’s trade war with Canada.
Constantino, a vocal Trump supporter, won the Republican primary over an assemblyman backed by local Republican and Conservative Party leaders after receiving Trump’s endorsement. The printing-company owner has invested $17 million of his own fortune in the race.
The Conservative Party line, which typically goes to the Republican candidate in House contests, was left blank.
The division on the political right over Constantino, combined with frustration over rising fuel prices and other everyday expenses, creates a “perfect storm” for Gendebien and Democrats, campaign strategist O’Brien “OB” Murray said.
“It’s a fractured Republican Party,” Murray said. “When the Republican and Conservative parties are not in sync, it’s a problem.
“It provides an opportunity for the Democrats to take advantage of the split. It could be the perfect storm for the Democrats.”
Murray was also involved in the last North Country race featuring a split on the political right, in 2009. He worked for Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in a three-way contest against Republican Dede Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens.
Owens won after then-Vice President Joe Biden campaigned with him on the eve of the election.
Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to campaign with Constantino in the district on Monday in an effort to rally the Republican base and other conservative voters.
Murray called Vance the “perfect surrogate” to remind Republicans that holding Stefanik’s seat is “too important” to surrender to Democrats because of party infighting.
Additional reporting by Vaugh Golden
