The New York Times’ final round of polling for this year’s midterm elections sketches a worst-case outlook for Republicans nationwide.
A joint survey by The Times and the Siena Research Institute shows Democrats leading—or running effectively even—in several crucial battleground contests.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El Sayed holds a double-digit advantage over Republican Mike Rogers, leading 53 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll.
The survey was conducted before Democrat Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers on Sunday.
Texas could also see a Senate seat change hands. Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50 percent to 43 percent in the poll, putting the Lone Star State’s seat in Democratic reach.
The survey likewise points to a possible Republican defeat in Maine, where Democratic challenger Troy Jackson leads incumbent Republican Susan Collins 51 percent to 45 percent. The result falls within the poll’s margin of error.
In Ohio—won by President Donald Trump three times—the poll projects Republican incumbent John Husted could lose to Democrat Sherrod Brown. Brown leads Husted 49 percent to 44 percent in the Times survey.
The Times also forecasts a Democratic pickup in Iowa’s open Senate race, with Democrat Josh Turek narrowly ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson, 48 percent to 47 percent.
US President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a midterm campaign rally at Five Flags Center in Dubuque, Iowa on November 1, 2026
The US Capitol building is seen on a cloudy day on Capitol Hill in Washington in September
Kansas Republican Roger Marshall is another incumbent the poll predicts could be defeated on Election Day Tuesday.
Marshall trails Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton 49 percent to 44 percent, according to the survey.
Alaska is also projected to swing toward the Democrats, with former Democratic lawmaker Mary Peltola favored to unseat Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan.
The poll, however, included one striking caveat.
The Times noted that “this cycle, Democrats are once again responding to Times/Siena polls at a much higher rate than Republicans.”
“Across these final battleground polls, registered White Democrats were about 30 percent likelier to take the poll than registered White Republicans,” The Times added.
President Donald Trump has crisscrossed the country, holding a series of campaign rallies aimed at boosting Republican turnout. He visited Kansas and Iowa on Sunday and is scheduled to rally at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, DC, on Monday.
Even so, Trump’s advisers have privately acknowledged that he cannot be held solely responsible if Republicans deliver disappointing results Tuesday night.
“The president can only do so much,” one Trump political adviser told Our News Outlet. “If we do fall short in the midterms, it’s not because of the president’s lack of trying or lack of effort.”
At stop after stop, Trump has urged supporters to treat the election as though he were on the ballot. While his name is not listed, he has argued, his political legacy is at stake—and he does not want to spend his final two years in office as a lame duck.
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The blame game has already started. Trump has privately criticized super PAC chief James Blair over campaign spending, Reuters reported earlier this month.
Chief of Staff Susie Wiles has also faced a wave of leaks suggesting she could be replaced after the election, despite Trump’s declaration that there is “zero” chance he will fire her.
Trump has publicly blamed rebel GOP Senator John Cornyn and Republican strategist Karl Rove if Ken Paxton falls short in the Texas Senate race, Bloomberg reported last week.
Speaking at a Michigan rally in late October, Trump warned voters: “You will only have yourselves to blame, and I don’t think there’s any coming back from that either,” should Republicans lose control of Congress.
In Alaska, Trump has also begun laying the groundwork to describe the election as “rigged,” pointing to the presence of two candidates named Dan Sullivan on the ballot, including the Republican incumbent.
Republicans currently control 53 seats in the Senate. Democrats must gain at least four seats to take control of the upper chamber in the next Congress.
In the US House of Representatives, Democrats need to flip at least three seats to secure control.
