Election analyst Nate Silver has suggested that Donald Trump could leave office before the end of his term if Democrats take control of Congress and dominate his final two years in the White House.
The former ABC contributor correctly forecast a “blue tsunami” before Tuesday’s elections. Democrats won at least 54 Senate seats and 250 House seats, although several races remained unresolved.
Speaking on his podcast, Still Counting, Silver described a scenario in which Trump could decide to resign with time still left on his presidential term.
“I had just a weird intuition that maybe Trump will find some pretense to quit, you know what I mean? Because he could get very, very, very isolated, and that also could make him dangerous,” Silver said.
Silver argued that Trump is not “evil,” but said Republicans had accepted a political bargain that he may no longer be able to fulfill.
“I just think that Republicans made — I was searching for a more original metaphor — but a deal with the devil in Trump, right? And I don’t mean that to mean that he’s evil. I mean that in the sense of, like, you get your three Supreme Court justices, you get tax breaks for the wealthy, but you pay a lot of f***ing price for that,” he said.
He also accused Trump of draining the Republican Party of attention and preventing other potential leaders from emerging.
Silver said Trump could ultimately step aside and give Vice President JD Vance the advantage of holding the presidency as an incumbent.
Election analyst Nate Silver predicted that Donald Trump could leave office early if Democrats seized power during his final two years in the White House
Silver said Trump is not “evil,” but argued that his political bargain with Republicans now carries a heavy cost
Silver said Trump’s final two years would be unusual because the president may have lost both the “fear factor” and the influence he once held over congressional Republicans.
Former Fox News anchor Gretchen Carlson said the possibility was “not that far-fetched.”
Our News Outlet has contacted the White House for comment.
Silver had been confident about Democrats’ prospects in the November 3 elections. Three weeks earlier, his model gave the party a 94 percent chance of winning the House and a 75 percent chance of capturing the Senate.
In an interview with The New York Times’ Ezra Klein, Silver said a Democratic sweep could prove “momentous.”
“If the election goes roughly as the polls say it will go, then in some ways it would mark the end of the Trump era, I think,” Silver said.
Although Trump would remain president for another two years, Silver said the results could leave him as “a super lame duck,” comparable to George W. Bush after the 2006 midterm elections.
He said Democratic victories in traditionally Republican states such as Kansas and Texas could trigger a “generational turnover” in American politics.
Silver believes Trump could step aside to give JD Vance the benefit of presidential incumbency
Silver said Democratic control of both chambers of Congress could signal “the end of the Trump era”
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“After 2024, there was talk of a permanent conservative vibe shift, that Democrats were on their back heels and Biden had failed and wokeness was dumb,” Silver said.
In his Silver Bulletin newsletter, the forecaster pointed to New York Times/Siena polling released on the eve of the elections as evidence that a Democratic “blue tsunami” was approaching in his analysis.
Democrats had already gained 40 House seats, with 27 races still undecided, while also picking up seven Senate seats and holding leads in two contests yet to be called.
The party captured Senate seats in states where Democrats had not prevailed for decades, including Texas and South Carolina, as well as a once-in-a-century victory in Kansas.
Late-counted ballots could still deliver two additional Senate victories in Mississippi and Alaska.
In the House, Democrats had secured 253 seats, representing a gain of 38, with 25 races still outstanding.
Democrats also won governors’ races in 29 states, giving the party its largest share of statehouses in 16 years.
The party added “trifectas” in several states, meaning Democrats would control the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.
Trump attributed the losses to weak Republican candidates and his absence from the ballot. Other critics blamed the president’s policies and the Iran War.
