California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s prospects of reaching the White House appear to have weakened following the midterm elections, with his odds of securing the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination falling to a record low on prediction markets.
At one point, Newsom’s chances dropped to 7%, marking a new low for the California Democrat as traders shifted their attention to other possible contenders.
In the latest market snapshot, Newsom was priced at 11%, with more than $28.3 million wagered on the 2028 presidential race and his potential candidacy.
That placed him behind Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who led the field at 27%, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who held 17%.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris stood at 6%, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro were each listed at 5%.
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Overall, the 2028 presidential market has generated more than $1.3 billion in trading volume, highlighting the intense interest in the contest even though the election remains two years away.
Newsom has long been considered a potential Democratic candidate after raising his national profile through clashes with President Trump and efforts to establish himself as one of the party’s most prominent voices.
Still, the latest market activity indicates that traders are increasingly looking beyond Newsom as they assess who could become the Democrats’ next presidential nominee.
Prediction market odds represent traders’ expectations and can change rapidly in response to political developments. They are not scientific polls and should not be viewed as a definitive assessment of any candidate’s chances.
