WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump has offered an increasingly contradictory account of his plans for the Iran war since Republicans suffered heavy losses in last week’s midterm elections.
In comments to reporters, television interviews and social media posts since Election Day, Trump has signaled both a reluctance to launch further strikes and a retreat from renewed negotiations with Iranian officials aimed at ending the eight-month conflict.
The day after the midterms, Trump acknowledged that the war — and the global economic disruption it has triggered — had contributed to the Republican losses. He nonetheless defended the decision to enter the conflict.
Earlier this week, Trump met at the White House with Qatar’s prime minister. Afterward, he told reporters that major new strikes on Iran were highly unlikely and said the war was “militarily effectively over.”
By Thursday, however, Trump was again questioning whether he needed to pursue an immediate resolution. He said the United States no longer required an agreement with Tehran and directed Vice President JD Vance — his lead negotiator during earlier peace discussions with Iran — to concentrate instead on the administration’s domestic anti-fraud campaign.
At the same time, Trump warned Tehran that the U.S. military remained “locked and loaded” and was monitoring Pickaxe Mountain, a site linked to Iran’s nuclear program, for signs of activity.
“If something does not work out, I would not hesitate” to act, Trump told conservative broadcaster Hugh Hewitt on Thursday.
Iran war will shadow Trump during his trip to Asia
Trump’s shifting tone has deepened uncertainty over what comes next in a war that began without consultation with America’s allies, even as those countries struggle with its economic consequences.
“President Trump is now acting like an arsonist who has set ablaze our foreign policy,” Democratic Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey said Friday in an interview on the sidelines of the Democrats’ postelection gathering in Denver. “And now he just wants to walk away.”
The president’s unclear position is expected to feature prominently during a trip next week to the Philippines and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in Shenzhen, the Chinese technology hub.
In Shenzhen, Trump is scheduled to take part in an unprecedented three-way summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Iran and the three countries’ nuclear arsenals are expected to be among the issues discussed.
The White House declined to directly address questions about Trump’s post-election comments on Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, argued that the administration’s strategy is driving Iran’s economy toward collapse.
“The economic pain that we are inflicting on that regime is so great that there’s no need for military action because we’ve weakened them so much,” Rubio said Friday evening in a speech to the Federalist Society.
Mideast diplomats try to make sense of Trump’s position
Qatar, the principal mediator, is continuing efforts to broker an interim arrangement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for oil and natural gas shipments from the Persian Gulf to international markets. The proposal would also preserve the possibility of future U.S.-Iran talks.
But two Middle Eastern diplomats familiar with the negotiations said those efforts have been clouded by Trump’s changing and, at times, conflicting statements.
The diplomats, who spoke anonymously because of the sensitivity of the discussions, said the process appeared to be moving forward earlier this week after Qatar’s prime minister met with Trump.
That momentum was disrupted Thursday when Trump posted that the United States did not need an agreement with Iran and instructed Vance to devote his “complete and total attention” to the anti-fraud effort.
One diplomat said the message raised questions about why Trump appeared to be pushing Vance aside, particularly because the vice president had been wary of launching the war before ultimately supporting the president.
Vance had been considering renewed contact with senior Iranian negotiators, according to a person familiar with the matter. The person was not authorized to speak publicly and requested anonymity.
Trump’s call for Vance to step away from the Iran talks came the morning after The Wall Street Journal reported that the vice president was weighing a return to negotiations. Trump, who knew about Vance’s deliberations, believed Iran was not negotiating in good faith, the person said.
Trump is also growing more confident that he can credibly claim to have met the war’s military objectives.
Yet passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains dangerous. The United Nations said October saw the highest number of incidents involving commercial ships in the disputed waters since February.
Even so, Trump believes that with oil shipments through the strait approaching prewar levels, Gulf nations could take the lead in negotiating an agreement with Iran on how the strategic waterway would be managed, the person said.
The second regional diplomat said peace efforts had effectively entered a holding pattern while mediators waited for the White House to clarify Trump’s intentions.
The diplomat said it remained unclear to both mediators and Iranian officials whether Trump was abandoning the prospect of a negotiated settlement or simply striking a harder public posture after the midterm elections cost Republicans control of Congress.
Rubio insists US hasn’t given up on mediation efforts
Iran has refused to negotiate over its nuclear program until the United States accepts several fundamental conditions Tehran wants included in any ceasefire agreement.
The dispute over Iran’s nuclear activities remains the most difficult obstacle, and Trump has insisted that any agreement ending the war must address it.
Iranian officials have shown little sign of softening their rhetoric. Gholamhossein Darzi, Iran’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, told the Security Council on Friday that Tehran “has never closed the door to diplomacy.” He warned, however, that any renewed U.S. or Israeli bombing would trigger “an immediate and decisive response.”
Rubio said earlier this week that Washington was not opposed to continued mediation efforts.
“If there’s a deal to be done, the president will be the first one to be in favor of it,” Rubio said. “But it’s not going to be a stupid deal. It’s not going to be a bad deal.”
Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he expects the current stalemate to continue for some time. The United States and Iran remain at odds over the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington’s months-long naval blockade continues to restrict Iranian crude exports to global markets.
Singh said putting further economic pressure on Iran is a more appealing course for Trump than escalating militarily or offering concessions to Tehran.
He added that Trump could reverse course on Vance’s involvement if the president concludes that Iranian officials are prepared to negotiate seriously.
“It’s probably the most sensible path as well to sort of be patient, keep the pressure on, allow the mediators to keep doing their work,” said Singh, who handled Middle East issues in former President George W. Bush’s White House. “And when the time is right, but not before then, is when you want to engage senior officials like the vice president and so forth.”
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Associated Press writers Nicholas Riccardi in Denver and Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed reporting.
