Experts Name Stocks Poised to Profit From the World Cup

It is hardly a shock that the biggest World Cup in football history has sparked equally ambitious forecasts about its economic upside — and the opportunities it could create for investors.

The tournament will feature 48 nations, 104 matches and venues spread across 16 cities in three countries.

Still, the projected benefits for food and beverage groups, sportswear companies and a range of other businesses are striking enough to merit investor attention.

Bank of America analysts are among the most optimistic, pointing to a potential $41billion (£31billion) boost to the global economy from the World Cup.

That momentum could be strengthened further by the US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, provided events unfold as expected.

Bank of America estimates that 75 per cent of the world will engage with what it describes as “the most connected and data-intensive sports event ever staged” — a trend that could benefit online heavyweights such as Alphabet, YouTube’s parent company, and Meta, the owner of Instagram and Facebook.

Private bank Edmond de Rothschild offers a more measured view of the likely benefits for the United States, noting lingering questions over the country’s appetite for “soccer”. Even so, it argues that a settlement in the Middle East would be “a major positive factor”, as cheaper energy could support consumer-focused stocks around the world.

Meanwhile, UK forecasters calculate that the World Cup could provide a £7.6billion boom for our pubs, restaurants and supermarkets, compensating in part for the effect of the government’s tax hikes and what Clive Black of Shore Capital calls other ‘feckless’ policies.

In the next few weeks, more than a third of us plan to spend more on food and drink, according to an estimate from grocery analytics specialist IGD.

So, here’s the line-up of the likely winners in the World Cup investment game.

How to pick a winner

Households continue to face cost of living pressures, although inflation held steady this week at 2.8 per cent.

Lale Akoner, global market strategist at eToro, says this means that many fans will watch matches at home, or make less expensive plans if they do go out.

This suggest that drinks companies and supermarkets should gain from the tournament.

She adds: ‘The broader message is that football can create a spike in activity, but the real investment case still rests on pricing power, cost control and strong underlying fundamentals.’

Before you place your bets, note that you may already be backing some of the contenders. For example, Alphabet and Meta are among the top holdings of many popular funds, such as the F&C trust.

A gambling company may appear to be the best bet of all. Yet there has been a 30 per cent fall this year in shares in Entain whose divisions include Coral, Ladbrokes and BetMGM, a US online sports betting platform.

Behind this decline lies the rapid ascent of the controversial US low-cost prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

Entain shares look like a bargain, and indeed they are rated as a ‘buy’ by analysts. But the company has a bigger fight on its hands than many World Cup competitors.

Food companies to gain

Weaker consumer confidence and wet weather hit first quarter sales at Tesco, our largest supermarket with a 28.3 per cent slice of the market.

Caution among shoppers has been weighing on the retailer’s shares for a while, leading analysts at UBS to argue that this weakness may be an opportunity to snap up shares. The mix of the World Cup and ending of hostilities in the Middle East could lift shoppers’ spirits.

This view is supported by Tesco’s first quarter figures.

As Lucy Rumbold of Quilter Cheviot argues, households are eating more at home, sampling more Tesco Finest dishes and also ordering using the Whoosh rapid delivery service.

UBS reckons that Tesco shares could move from 454p to 545p. And the bank is also keen on Sainsbury’s, the number two supermarket, reckoning the shares could rise from the current 302p to 395p.

Marks & Spencer now has a 4.1 per cent slice of the grocery trade since more customers now do a weekly shop at its stores.

Its ‘picky bit’ snacks and indulgences should appeal to gatherings in front of the TV. M&S shares currently stand at 359p. Analysts rate them a ‘buy’ with an average target price of 431p.

Drinks firms could be sipping on profits

I hold M&S and Tesco shares because I’m a fan of both retailers. I also have a stake in Diageo because the troubled Guinness and Gordon’s drinks conglomerate is being transformed by chief executive Dave Lewis. Lewis, let’s remember, rescued Tesco.

At 1,505p, Diageo shares are 60 per cent lower than in 2021. But a month ago, Diageo reported higher sales to distributors building up stocks ahead of the World Cup.

To sustain this momentum, the company is moving from premium tequilas towards ‘RTDs’, the ready-to-drink cocktails with which many members of Gen Z will celebrate or commiserate in the new few weeks.

As a consequence of this progress, the company has won ‘buy’ ratings from Berenberg, Jefferies and other investment analysts.

High hopes for hospitality

Some will enjoy the World Cup from a bar or pub rather than from the comfort of their sofa.

Taking a punt on a pub company is risky at present, given the burden of overheads. But some businesses appear resolved to survive.

Fuller Smith & Turner reported a rise in convivial gatherings even before the start of the tournament. The shares are seen as a ‘buy’ at 697p.

Marston’s is another pub business refurbishing its outlets to lure patrons from their sofas, and outlets that have been treated to the ‘Grandstand’ sports vibe makeover are already delivering higher margins. Marston’s is also a ‘buy’ at 48p.

Analysts are upbeat too about Mitchells & Butler. At 239p, the shares are another ‘buy’.

Since the start of the year, shares in London-listed Intercontinental Hotels (ICH) Group have leapt by 24 per cent to 171p amid hopes that its 4,000 Holiday Inn establishments would be popular among World Cup spectators.

Empty seats at some early matches hint that US zeal for soccer could be exaggerated. But some analysts think that lovers of the beautiful game from elsewhere will take a last-minute trip stateside, with the majority considering ICH a ‘buy’ or a ‘hold’.

Keep an eye on clothing

The England team’s off-pitch kit (supplied by M&S) will be the more low-key choice of some fans.

But the German Adidas athleticwear group and its American rival Nike are dressing many teams on the pitch and these giants trust that fans will show their loyalty by buying items of apparel.

Analysts rate Adidas a ‘buy’ at €173 (£130) – for a good reason. In April the business spoke of strong demand for World Cup competitor teams’ ‘away’ jerseys. And it is already ahead in the ‘sneaker war’, as the fight for dominance of this $91billion (£68billion) market is called.

Adidas Adizero Adios Pro Evo 3 trainers speeded the victors in this year’s London men’s and women’s London Marathon.

By contrast, shares in Nike are down 66 per cent over the past five years, thanks to a build-up of unsold inventory – and the failure to deliver a must-have trainer.

Nike may aspire to convert football into a ‘multi-year growth driver’. But investors may prefer to opt for this year’s victor, not tomorrow’s possible winner.