During a recent event in Las Vegas, Ted Cruz addressed a crucial topic within the Republican Party.

“What happens when Trump is no longer in the White House?” Cruz queried, prompting an enthusiastic response from the audience: “Ted Cruz!”

At 55, Cruz, who was the runner-up to Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican primaries, paused and laughed at the crowd’s suggestion. Although he didn’t directly comment on the possibility of running again in 2028, many Republican insiders speculate that he is positioning himself for a potential campaign.

A recent poll conducted by the Daily Mail in collaboration with JL Partners suggests that Cruz and other hopefuls for 2028 face a challenging path, yet this doesn’t deter them from considering a run.

The poll shows Vice President JD Vance with a commanding 38-point lead among Republican primary voters.

Vance has the support of 49 percent, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trailing significantly at 11 percent, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in third place with five percent. Cruz and Vivek Ramaswamy are tied for fourth with four percent each.

However, two years before the presidential primary, no lead is unassailable and the prospect of an open primary, not with as many contenders as 2016 but some serious players, remains realistic.

There are expected to be two main sources of support – the MAGA base, and the more traditional wing of the party with a less isolationist foreign policy. There’s also a strain of the party who will be searching for a fresher face – someone who may not even be on the radar of most Republicans right now.  

Vice President JD Vance is leading by far in the field of potential Republican primary contenders for the 2028 presidential election, according to a new poll by the Daily Mail and JL Partners

‘Vance actually has converted to a much greater extent [to MAGA] than Rubio has,’ one insider told the Daily Mail. ‘He’s seen as the real thing. He’s hardcore.’

While this insider complimented Marco Rubio as ‘sharp’ and ‘thoughtful,’ the current secretary of state is most likely seen as a Vance ally in the run-up to 2028. 

‘He wants to be Vance’s VP. Remember, that means Hispanics on the ticket,’ the insider added.

That could mean Rubio taking a run at the White House as late as 2036, when he would still only be 65, young by current presidential standards.

However, others are watching Vance closely, and putting themselves in position to run in case a path opens up.

While the polls are with the vice president, history is not.

The last incumbent vice president to be elected president was George H W Bush in 1988, and the one before that was Martin Van Buren in 1836. Joe Biden and Richard Nixon were former vice presidents when they won the White House.

One former senior Trump official told the Daily Mail: ‘There’s no doubt Vance has a head start as vice president, but I think it’s a head start, I don’t think it’s locked in by any stretch of the imagination. I think there’ll be a big open field within the Republican Party, I think a lot of people are interested.’

According to the Daily Mail poll, no potential female Republican contender earned more than three percent support.

Former Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley secured three percent, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem two percent and Congresswoman Elise Stefanik one percent, but each could eye a run if they see an opportunity. 

Vance had particularly high support among female Republican primary voters, with 54 percent backing him compared to 45 percent of men.

It comes after Vance recently went nuclear at commentators who insulted his wife Usha.

‘Let me be clear, anyone who attacks my wife, whether their name is Jen Psaki or Nick Fuentes, can eat s***,’ Vance said, referencing former Biden press secretary Psaki, and far-right influencer Fuentes.

‘It says a lot to people, here’s a guy who believes in true love, I’ve heard people say that,’ Professor Larry Sabato, Director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told the Daily Mail.

‘He’s got a soft side, I think brought on by having a young family. Women don’t make up the large majority of the Republican [primary] vote that they do on the Democratic side, but they make up about half in most places and they’re going to be more sympathetic, they’re going to be more pro-Vance because of Usha’s presence.’

In his corner, Vance will also have the formidable backing of the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s political machine Turning Point USA, which would help get out the vote in the wintry, rural first-voting primary state of Iowa.

During the group’s annual AmericaFest conference just before Christmas, Kirk’s widow Erika endorsed Vance.

‘There are few endorsements that really matter, but I think hers [Erika Kirk’s] does,’ said Sabato.

Vance also won Turning Point USA’s recent straw poll for the Republican nomination in 2028 with 82 percent of the vote. His margin of victory was bigger than Trump’s in the same poll in 2024. 

Pollsters say Erika Kirk’s endorsement is one of the few that ‘really matters’ in the 2028 Republican primary

Absent unforeseen crises – and there are two years to go before Iowa – Vance is almost certain to inherit the MAGA mantle.

Others have tried to reinvigorate the traditional wing of the party and failed, a lesson Haley learned the hard way in 2024.

However, there was recent encouragement for such candidates from an NBC News poll, which asked Republicans whether they considered themselves more a ‘member of the MAGA movement’ or a ‘supporter of the Republican Party.’ The result split 50-50, having been 57 percent MAGA and 43 percent traditional Republican in April.

Those who read the Washington tea leaves believe Cruz could be the next Republican who tries to ride that wave.

He has been vocal in his warnings against isolationism, particularly the growing criticism of Israel among some prominent conservative figures including Tucker Carlson.

While he has publicly praised Trump, sources claimed to the Washington Post that Cruz has privately told Republican donors that Vance’s foreign policy views are too isolationist.

‘Cruz would be crazy not to do this. This is his last shot,’ one Washington insider told the Daily Mail. ‘You always prepare yourself to run for the position if circumstances enable you to do so. And one circumstance would be an unpopular Trump.’

Currently, Trump remains overwhelmingly popular within the party but if that fades toward the end of his presidency it could open the door for Cruz and a host of other senators and state governors to enter the 2028 race.

‘If Trump is still at 80 to 85 percent approval among Republicans, no way,’ said Sabato assessing the likelihood of a strong challenge to Vance. ‘If Trump becomes unpopular [with Republicans] and the economy is a mess, then yes, everybody, and his brother and sister will be on the train.’

Vance and Rubio are widely considered the heirs apparent for Trump’s MAGA empire – though there’s been a lot of talk about which Republicans prefer to take the helm in 2028

Ted Cruz finished second to Trump in the 2016 Republican primary

Vance’s team has repeatedly said he is not yet looking ahead to 2028, and is focused on his current position.

His team declined the Daily Mail’s request for comment on the polling results.

‘We’re going to do everything that we can to win the midterms, and then after that, I’m going to sit down with the president of the United States and talk to him about it,’ Vance said recently.

If Cruz were to run, it may well spur others to do so, as they may feel they have more allies within the Republican Party than he does.

The feeling was summed up succinctly by Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who recently fell out with President Trump. She told the Washington Post: ‘There’ll be Ted Cruz, I’m sure, running against JD Vance. All of us hate Ted Cruz.’

Another potential landmine for Vance is the libertarian wing of the party.

Republican Senator Rand Paul has criticized Vance’s position on trade and tariffs.

‘Now all these pro-tariff protectionists, they love taxes, and so they tax, tax, tax, and then they brag about all the revenue coming in. That has never been a conservative position,’ Paul told ABC News.

Asked if Vance met that criteria of the traditional Republicans, he bluntly replied: ‘No.’

America First Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor-Greene said ‘All of us hate Ted Cruz’

Vice President JD Vance, his wife Usha Vance and their children attend the Army 250th Anniversary Parade in Washington, DC on June 14, 2025

The 2028 election could be between Kamala Harris and JD Vance, according to polls

When the Daily Mail poll includes the current president’s eldest son Donald Trump Jr in a hypothetical 2028 Republican primary, Vance’s support falls from 49 percent to 38 percent – but he still remains in first place.

However, the president’s son has been clear he has no ambitions to run for president, especially given that he is personally close with Vance and helped convince his father to place him on the 2024 ticket.

A well-connected Iowa strategist suggested that Vance could face a primary challenge from the right in, possibly from an unexpected candidate claiming to be the true MAGA successor through even greater loyalty to Trump’s causes.

‘There may be two MAGA lanes. Will someone try to outflank the vice president?’ the strategist told the Daily Mail. ‘Some fresh faces, maybe not the ones being talked about now, might decide they want to take a swing at it.’

But Cruz will also be standing in the way of an insurgency. The Texan defeated Trump in the 2016 Iowa caucuses and would start with strong relationships formed in the evangelical community.  

Ron DeSantis, who finished second in both the Daily Mail poll and the 2024 Iowa caucuses, appears less likely to run again, according to the Iowa strategist.

If the Daily Mail poll came to fruition, it sets up a 2028 general election between Vance and former Vice President Kamala Harris.

But front-runners at this early stage usually don’t end up as their party’s nominee.

Harris, who lost the popular vote and Electoral College to Trump in the 2024 election, has the support of 30 percent of her party’s voters.

But a fellow Californian, Governor Gavin Newsom, is hot on her heels, with 21 percent of support in the Democratic primary and appears ascendant. 

In a recent speech, Vance forecasted that Democrats are likely to nominate a Californian in 2028 – but he stopped short of naming which one.