More than 10,000 Americans have now died from the coronavirus and the number of infections increased to over 347,000 – as new data predicts the outbreak in the US will peak in 10 days with over 3,000 deaths in 24 hours.
The death toll in the United States increased by 1,147 overnight to bring the total number of fatalities to 10,358.
The number of confirmed cases across the country increased by 25,841 to bring the infection total to 347,516.
New York remains the epicenter of the US outbreak with nearly 500 new fatalities and more than 8,900 new cases in the state as of Monday.
Health officials, however, have warned that the death toll from coronavirus is actually much higher given their is no stream-lined way of reporting fatalities across the country in relation to the pandemic.
It comes as forecasters at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine released updated coronavirus estimates on Sunday that showed the peak of the pandemic could be over quicker than initially thought and level out as early as June.
The estimated peak day of the outbreak is expected to occur in 10 days on April 16 with a projected 3,130 deaths that day, the data shows.
Peak resource use for hospitals is predicted to occur on April 15 – the day before the peak death toll – where an estimated 25,000 ventilators, 140,000 beds and 29,000 ICU beds will be needed.
Data shows there will be a shortage of 36,000 hospital beds and 16,000 ICU beds by that day.
Dr Christopher Murray, who is the director of the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said New York could reach its peak in the next few days.
He said New Jersey, which has experienced a larger number of cases than previously thought, will peak later than New York.
Dr Murray said the data was predicting that Florida, Virginia, Louisiana and West Virginia will all peak earlier than initially thought.
‘As we noted previously, the trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions,’ he said.
‘Our projections are strengthened by the new downturns in more regions . This is evidence that social distancing is crucial.’
The forecasts are based on social distancing remaining in place until the end of May.
‘Our estimates assume statewide social distancing measures are continuing in states where they have already been enacted, and for those states without such measures in place, it is assumed they will be will be in place within seven days,’ Dr Murray said.
Peak resource use for hospitals is predicted to occur on April 15 – the day before the peak death toll – where an estimated 25,000 ventilators, 140,000 beds and 29,000 ICU beds will be needed. The data shows the pandemic could be over quicker than initially thought and level out as early as June
The estimated peak day of the US outbreak is expected to occur in 10 days on April 16 with a projected 3,130 deaths that day, the data shows
While the data still shows a predicted 81,000 deaths from COVID-19 over the next four months, the estimate range has lowered. It was initially thought the range could be as high as 162,000 deaths but it is now predicted to be as high as 136,000 fatalities
‘If social distancing measures are relaxed or not implemented, the US will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater and the economic costs will continue to grow.’
New data on health service use from multiple states, including New York, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Florida and California, since the pandemic started escalating has also led to decreases in the estimated need to deal with the outbreak.
The need for ICU beds and ventilators are less than previously estimated and will dramatically decrease by June 1, according to the data.
Dr Murray said the data showed the the length of stay for COVID-19 patients in ICU had increased but the length of stay had gone down for patients not requiring intensive care.
The lower numbers of required hospital beds could reflect how moderately ill patients in cities like New York are not being admitted because of the demand on the over-stretched system.
In addition to New York, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Nevada, Illinois, California, Florida, Washington and Connecticut are other current hot spots in the country due to rising death tolls.
Pennsylvania, Colorado and Washington DC are now become emerging coronavirus hot spots due to the increasing death tolls.
In Pennsylvania, there were 151 deaths as of Sunday – up from the 42 deaths the state recorded in the week prior. Colorado recorded 140 deaths by Sunday, which was up from the 45 from the previous week. Washington DC had nine deaths last Sunday but in a week it rose to 22.
Dr Deborah Birx, the White House COVID-19 task force coordinator, said Pennsylvania, Colorado and Washington DC were being closely watched as the pandemic rapidly spreads across the country.
‘We’re watching them because they are starting to go on that upside of the curve,’ she said.
‘We’re hoping and believing that if people mitigate strongly, the work that they did over the last two weeks will blunt that curve and they won’t have the same upward slope and peak that New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and part of Rhode Island are having.’
US Surgeon General Jerome Adams warned on Fox News on Sunday that the country would be entering its hardest week yet amid the pandemic.
‘This is going to be the hardest and the saddest week of most Americans’ lives, quite frankly. This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9/11 moment, only it’s not going to be localized,’ ‘It’s going to be happening all over the country. And I want America to understand that.’
It comes as most states have ordered residents to stay home except for essential trips to slow the spread of the virus in the US.
But eight states, all of them with Republican governors, have yet to order residents to stay home: Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming.
Georgia, which has recorded 6,600 cases and more than 200 deaths, ordered residents to stay home but then allowed some beaches to reopen.
Republican Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson defended his refusal to order statewide restrictions, saying the situation was being watched closely and that his more ‘targeted approach’ was still slowing the spread of the virus.
Adams, the surgeon general, said governors who had not issued month-long stay-at-home orders should at least consider one for the upcoming week.
White House medical experts have forecast that between 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could be killed in the pandemic, even if sweeping orders to stay home are followed.
Source: Daily Mail – Articles